Too soon to 急ぐ 支援する to techs

By ANTHONY HILTON FOR MAILONLINE
Updated: 00:00 BST, 9 December 2002

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HOPES of a 回復 in 科学（工学）技術 have sent 株 prices on the American Nasdaq 索引 up 35% in the past couple of months and helped the Dow Jones 産業の 普通の／平均（する） to a 20% rise. Individual 在庫／株s such as Intel are 50% above their lows. In London, the 殺到する has not been as 示すd but there are 調印するs of a 限定された change in 感情.

Funny, but before they 急ぐd off to buy the 在庫／株s no one thought to ask the Taiwanese what it looks like from their end, given that they make most of the stuff - the 半導体s, flat 審査するs, 監視するs and motherboards - that goes into the world's electronic 装置s.

株 in Taiwan have 解除するd a bit too, of course, but nothing like as much as in London and New York. The 推論する／理由, によれば companies like computer company Acer or motherboard 製造者 Asustek, is that though they are selling more 製品s, they are not making any more money. Turnover is up because the 崩壊（する） in 容積／容量s and prices last year squeezed out a lot of smaller 供給者s. The small 回復 there has been in 容積／容量s has not fed through to prices.

They also don't 信用 the 現在の firmness of the market. The 産業 was pulled out of the doldrums in the final ４半期/4分の1 of last year by American stockbuilding ahead of the war in Afghanistan, which US 会社／堅いs 恐れるd might 混乱に陥れる／中断させる 供給（する）s, most of which come by 空気／公表する. The Taiwanese see the same 人工的な インフレーション of orders today, which they put 負かす／撃墜する again to stockbuilding ahead of a possible 衝突 in Iraq 早期に next year.

If there is war, they think sales will 低迷 disastrously for who knows how long. If peace is 持続するd, things will be better but by nothing like enough to 正当化する the 増加する we have already seen in the price of 科学（工学）技術 株.

As they see it, the PC market is now 円熟した, so they are catering まず第一に／本来 for 交替／補充 需要・要求する. In theory, there せねばならない be a lot of people 列ing up to buy new machines because so many of those 現在／一般に in use were bought in 1999 as part of the 準備s to 避ける the Millennium Bug problem. 一般に such machines are written off over three years so they should be getting to the end of their useful lives. In fact, they will last longer than that. When money is tight - which it is 権利 now - people will 取って代わる machines only when they have to, which means either when Intel introduces a new 加工業者 that 始める，決めるs new 基準s of 速度(を上げる） or when Microsoft produces a 見解／翻訳／版 of W indows 十分に new to make the old stuff obsolete.

Intel and Microsoft have made half-hearted 試みる／企てるs in the past 12 months to move things 今後, but neither Intel's new 半導体素子 nor the new 見解／翻訳／版 of Windows 追加するd up to a must-have 製品 and failed to 点火（する） the PC market. No 重要な 解放（する） is planned from either company for another year, so people will be able to jog along with their old machines.

That, によれば the guys in Taiwan who live and die by riding the cycles of this 産業, 示唆するs that 2003 will be flat but things will 選ぶ up 堅固に in 2004. And that makes these past few weeks rather 早期に to have been buying tech 在庫／株s.

Taiwan 新たな展開

NAMING five 全世界の brands from Taiwan is like trying to 指名する five famous ベルギーs - much harder than you would think. This is 利益／興味ing because Taiwan is the major 供給者 of 10 of the world's most sought-after goods - not bad for a country the size of むちの跡s.

It produces most of the world's computer 半導体素子s, the building 封鎖する of everything from washing machines to 動きやすい phones, makes 80% of all 数字表示式の cameras and almost 90% of flat 審査するs.

Yet, perhaps with the exception of Acer, who ever heard of a Taiwanese computer 製造者, flat 審査する 生産者, or 数字表示式の camera brand?

There are 推論する／理由s for this. 製造業の 技術s have 全世界の／万国共通の 使用／適用, but marketing 技術s relate to 地元の culture and do not travel 井戸／弁護士席.

Taiwan's 技術 has been to take the cost out of 製造業の, for which there is （疑いを）晴らす payback. Brand building is about spending on marketing which means 注ぐing money into いっそう少なく 有形の and accountable areas - that has never been the Chinese way.

Understanding 生産／産物 and 科学（工学）技術 is a lot more predictable and いっそう少なく 高くつく／犠牲の大きい than trying to understand the 顧客.

With 中国 taking over all the basic 製造業の, however, it is a 技術 Taiwanese companies need to learn quickly because branded goods 命令（する） the higher 利ざやs they need.

Still, notwithstanding their 決意, it seems 半端物 to think Canon, of Japan, or South Korea's Samsung may be 倒れるd by BenQ or Asus.