House prices 'could 落ちる 30%'

By SEAN POULTER FOR THE DAILY MAIL
Updated: 00:00 BST, 16 December 2002

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HOUSE prices could 落ちる by as much as 30% over the next four years, it is 予報するd today. That could wipe out all the 増加するs brought by the buying にわか景気 since April last year.

The thousands of 買い手s 現在／一般に 危険ing 100% mortgages and borrowing up to five times their salary could be 急落（する），激減（する）d dee p into 消極的な 公正，普通株主権.

The 警告 has extra 軍隊 because it comes from a 尊敬（する）・点d 専門家 in the field rather than yet another 月毎の 報告（する）／憶測 from a mortgage 貸す人. Roger Bootle, managing director of 資本／首都 経済的なs, was 以前は 長，指導者 経済学者 at HSBC and one of the Bank of England's 'wise men' who advised （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長s under the last Tory 政府. He said: 'The message is （疑いを）晴らす. Houses are now so over-valued that a 長引かせるd period of 落ちるing prices is on the cards.'

分析家s at 資本／首都 経済的なs say it would take a 落ちる of 22% to bring the cost of homes 支援する into line with what 買い手s can afford. A more serious 低迷, with prices 崩壊（する）ing 30%, cannot be 支配するd out if there is a 1980s-style 'にわか景気 and 破産した／（警察が）手入れする' cycle.

Some London 'hot 位置／汚点／見つけ出すs' have already seen prices 示すd 負かす／撃墜する in 最近の weeks, which has been せいにするd to lower City 特別手当s and 在庫／株 Market 不確定s.

But the 分析家s at 資本／首都 経済的なs 示唆する that the most serious and 普及した 影響s will not begin to be felt until late next year. They are 予測（する）ing 増加するs of 12% in 2003 before 落ちるs of 5% in 2004, 10% in 2005 and 7% in 2006.

That would see the 普通の／平均（する） price rising from around £117,000 now to £128,000 by the end of next year, then 落ちるing to £102,000 by Christmas 2006. Such a 転換 would 押し進める thousands of new and 最近の 買い手s into trouble - only last week 貸す人 Bristol & West 明かすd a new mortgage 許すing young people to borrow up to 110% of a 所有物／資産／財産's value.

The wider economy would 苦しむ as 消費者s 強化するd their belts, spreading the gloom into the High Street and beyond.

最近の 熟考する／考慮するs 示す that 年次の price rises are running at around 30%, the highest since the にわか景気 of the late 1980s. But CE argues that homes are now even その上の out of reach in relation to incomes.

普通の／平均（する） house prices are 5.7 times 普通の／平均（する） salaries, above even the 1989 頂点（に達する） of 5.6. 'History tells us that such a high 割合 cannot be 支えるd,' says the 会社／堅い's propert y 報告（する）／憶測. 'We should therefore 推定する／予想する a period when house price インフレーション either slows, or turns 消極的な.'

CE 始める，決めるs out five シナリオs 範囲ing from a benign slowing of the market, which would still be in the doldrums for up to ten years, to the one it 推定する／予想するs - sudden 崩壊（する） and slow 回復.

The 予測（する） echoes the 関心s of the Bank of England, which 警告するd recently that the longer the 現在の にわか景気 goes on the greater the 危険 of a 'sharp 是正'. Banks and building societies, however, say there is no obvious 誘発する／引き起こす for price 落ちるs. They point to continuing low 利益／興味 率s and 所有物／資産／財産 不足s as 推論する／理由 for prices to go on rising.

CE 示唆するs a 殺到する in 失業 could be the catalyst. But it argues that no 'big bang' would be needed to start a slide. 'All it would take is for 世帯s to be unwilling to 支払う／賃金 the price asked,' it says. 'In fact, there are already 調印するs that the 住宅 market にわか景気 is over in London... history 示唆するs that it cannot be long before the 残り／休憩（する） of the UK follows.'

The 最新の 人物／姿／数字s from the 所有物／資産／財産 website Rightmove.co.uk show that the asking prices of 所有物／資産／財産s coming on to the market are 落ちるing in London and static in many other 地域s. The approach of Christmas is 必然的に a factor. But the 普通の／平均（する） price in Greater London has fallen 3.5% in six weeks, to £241,358.

The 落ちる has been led by expensive boroughs such as Kensington and Chelsea - where prices are 負かす／撃墜する 14.4% over the ４半期/4分の1, or an 普通の／平均（する） of £62,000 - Westminster, Camden and Richmond.

The CE 熟考する／考慮する 示唆するs there are many 平行のs with the last にわか景気 and 破産した／（警察が）手入れする - although today's 利益／興味 率s of 4% are very different from the 15% of the late Eighties and 早期に Nineties. The 会社／堅い puts 現在の house prices at 28% above a 'fair value' in relation to incomes. That compares with a 人物／姿／数字 of 24% in 1989.

The last にわか景気 fell apart over a two and a half year period, beginning in 1990, when prices 衝突，墜落d 20% 国家的に. This time, CE is predictin g a 落ちる of 22% or more over the three years 2004-2006.

There is outside support for the 会社／堅い's 予測（する）s. 独立した・無所属 住宅 commentator John Wriglesworth said: 'The にわか景気 is indisputably over and we're in the Christmas なぎ, 特に in London. What remains difficult to call is whether prices will 選ぶ up in the New Year. However, I do not 推定する／予想する 類似の rises in 2003 to those in 2002.' Goldman Sachs 経済学者s have said their model 示すs the 所有物／資産／財産 market is over- valued by around 20%.