Vodafone's wrong number in 中国

By Ray ヒース／荒れ地
Updated: 00:00 BST, 14 November 2001

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A YEAR ago Vodafone 長，指導者 (n)役員／(a)執行力のある Sir Christopher Gent pulled off what some said could be the telecoms 取引，協定 of the century - buying a 2% 火刑／賭ける in cellphone 巨大（な） 中国 動きやすい.

Last week, Gent was 支援する in 中国 開始 a new Vodafone office in Beijing, and 予報するing a 広大な／多数の／重要な futur e for the Chinese 動きやすいs market and Vodafone's 役割 in it. On Tuesday Vodafone wrote off £300m from the value of its 火刑／賭ける in 中国 動きやすい.

What went wrong? When Vodafone bought its 火刑／賭ける, 中国 動きやすい was the darling of the Hong Kong 株式市場, where it is 引用するd. 分析家s were putting out buy notices like confetti, and extrapolating impressive 人物／姿／数字s for 動きやすい phone usage in the world's most populous 明言する／公表する.

The 株 had 急に上がるd from HK$8.90 in November 1998, to HK$59 when Vodafone moved in. They have not seen that price since, and the 全世界の 衝撃 of the 11 September attacks on the US 削減（する） them to HK$19.40. They have 回復するd to about HK$25, but the glamour has gone.

The lesson learned by 分析家s and the 投資家s who followed their advice is that nothing is as it seems in 中国. However, it is true that the 動きやすい phones market is 抱擁する. At the end of July, Beijing 公式の／役人s （人命などを）奪う，主張するd that the total Chinese market was bigger than America's at 120m 使用者s, 42% up on the year. 中国 動きやすい's 株 of this is 63m, some 5m more than even three months before. But while the number of 使用者s climbs, the idea has evaporated that, as the country's biggest cellphone provider, 中国 動きやすい has a licence to print money - although bulls are still はびこる in Hong Kong.

Alan Ng, telecoms 分析家 with Bank of 中国 Group, returned recently from a trip to Beijing to 会合，会う the 中国 動きやすい directors and 政府 公式の／役人s. He said: 'The operating 環境 for 動きやすい 操作者s is going to get tougher because there will be many more service providers in coming years, the regulatory 枠組み will become more stringent and price 競争 will 強める.'

The carve-up of the 動きやすいs market between 中国 動きやすい and its smaller 競争相手 中国 Unicom could soon end. Ng discovered that 政府 公式の／役人s believe that while there is no need to 問題／発行する licences for いわゆる Second 世代 (2g) phones, the arrival of 3g services will 正当化する more players, perhaps as many as 10.

'Some of these new players will be 共同の 投機・賭けるs with 主要な foreign 動きやすい 操作者s,' he said. '推定する／予想する very keen 競争.' World 貿易（する） Organisation 入ること／参加（者） will make the 入ること／参加（者） of foreign players easier.

規則s will get tougher. These will 含む the introduction of a 全世界の／万国共通の service provider (USP) - 一般に reckoned to be 中国 Telecom, the former communications monopoly. The USP will have an 義務 to 供給する a 十分な 範囲 of services, whether profitable or not.

To （不足などを）補う the losses other players, 含むing 中国's 動きやすい phone companies, will have to 与える／捧げる to a special 基金. How much that will be, and the 衝撃 on the 底（に届く） line is still anyone's guess. 中国 Telecom is also 報告（する）／憶測d to be 直面するing a break-up that will 増加する 競争 even more.

This, said Bertrand Chui of Hong Kong 仲買人s World Sec, is a good thing for 中国 動きやすい as it will 減ずる operating costs on 賃貸し（する）d lines and interconnections. He continues to hang a buy 調印する on the company, while BoC 率s it an under-performer.

Alan Ng 予測（する）s that 収入s per 株 growth will 低迷 from 60 cents to 13.3 cents this year, a meagre 1.1 cents next year, and a loss of 16 cents in 2003. If he is 権利, then not only Vodafone, but many other big 投資家s in the 本土／大陸's telecoms markets will carry on getting some wrong numbers.