The Daily Mail City Editor on why 利益／興味 率s are 不変の after the 予算

By This Is Money
Updated: 00:00 BST, 9 March 2001

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IT WAS always ありそうもない that the Bank of England would 削減（する） 利益／興味 率s again in March. To have done so would have signalled a higher degree of 関心 about the 全世界の economy than the 通貨の 政策 委員会 would customarily want to give.

And to 行為／法令／行動する so soon after the 予算, before the market has fully 吸収するd the 会計の 関わりあい／含蓄s, might have been seen as 無分別な. That is something of which the MPC, which has left its 重要な 率 at 5.75%, has never been （刑事）被告.

As far as the 予算 is 関心d, the City 分析 示唆するs that Gordon Brown has 緩和するd the purse strings more than prudence would care to 認める.

David Walton of Goldman Sachs 見積（る）s the stimulation 影響 of the 一括 as £5.4bn, or 0.5% of 国家の wealth in the next 財政上の year. But when this is 追加するd to the other 対策 baked into the cake in previous 声明s, the 緩和するing is 1% of GDP.

The same 結論 is reached by Geoffrey 刑事s of the 王室の Bank of Scotland who, after 追加するing 支援する some of the Pre-予算 報告（する）／憶測 対策 and those 約束d already, comes up with £9bn of giveaways, の近くに to 1% of 国家の wealth.

ーに関して／ーの点でs of the money 利用できる to Brown, 非，不，無 of this looks 特に promiscuous in that it leaves 逮捕する borrowing in 黒字／過剰. The bigger question is the 知恵 of piling 会計の 拡大 on an economy which is still going like a train.

The 最近の 論争 with the International 通貨の 基金 has been 大部分は about the 訂正する time for 政府s to 強固にする／合併する／制圧する their 課税 and spending 計画（する）s and when to 拡大する them. The 基金 argues that the time to 強固にする／合併する／制圧する is when the 財政／金融s are comfortable and growth is 強健な. The point is that public 財政／金融s can 悪化する 極端に quickly as the economy slows, taking everyone by surprise.

Enough 疑問 has been 表明するd about the 予算 for the Bank - which has its own 関係 with the 国際通貨基金 - to keep a tighter rein on 利益／興味 率s as a result of 会計の changes made since the March 2000 予算. Mor eover, the strength of 消費 and services at time when the 生産力のある 部門 of the economy may be in a jam, as a result of slowing world 貿易（する）, also points to the MPC remaining 用心深い.

The big if on the horizon is the international scene. As Brown 定評のある in his 予算, growth in the world economy is 概算の to halve this year. The 最新の data collected by the 地域の 支店s of the 連邦の Reserve paints a distinctly mixed picture, the Japanese economy is lurching from bad to worse and 仲買人s Merrill Lynch now 推定する／予想する Europe, and the 収入s of European companies, to be 攻撃を受けやすい as world 貿易（する） 悪化するs. 全世界の 条件s may yet lead the MPC to 削減（する） 利益／興味 率s this spring. But it will be with no thanks to the 予算.

BA 戦略
THE 復古／返還 of 信用／信任 at British 航空路s, under the stewardship of 棒 Eddington, continues apace.

The 決定／判定勝ち（する） to buy in the 操作／手術s of British 地域の 空気／公表する Lines for £78m is part of the 過程 of rationalising flights on loss-making European 大勝するs. It is another step に向かって wiping out one Robert Ayling 遺産／遺物 - the 概念 of a 事実上の 航空機による which てこ入れ／借入資本s its brand through other 運送／保菌者s.

The 株 have 答える／応じるd to Eddington's changes but the 回復 will be a long 運ぶ／漁獲高.

Although 利益（をあげる）s should come 支援する this year, with 仲買人s 見積（る）ing £162m before 税金 (from just £5m last time), this is still a fraction of what the world's favourite 航空機による once earned.

Moreover, it 直面するs fresh 関心s going 今後 with new problems in the 太平洋の on 最高の，を越す of the 悪化／低下 in the US economy (the North 大西洋 is a large chunk of BA's 商売／仕事).

Much of Eddington's 現在の 戦略 is based around 強固にする／合併する／制圧するing 大勝するs, 縮むing capacity and chipping away at the public 部門 culture which has never been 完全に shed within BA. This 過程 will continue to support the 株' 回復.

Going 今後, the 長，指導者 (n)役員／(a)執行力のある will need to 転換 from a 防御の approach, 目的（とする）d at 回復するing returns, to a more 積極的な growth approach. In a 高度に controlled 商売／仕事, this can be difficult.

But there are already suggestions that Eddington is keeping his 注目する，もくろむ 堅固に 焦点（を合わせる）d on Europe. Swissair has been について言及するd as a possible 合併 候補者. But KLM, which has the 決定的な 中心 at Schiphol, could yet come 支援する into 見解（をとる）.

That means finding some way of 打ち勝つing the 国家の and regulatory sensibilities which 封鎖するd a 取引，協定 last time.