Andrew Alexander of the Daily Mail on the 強硬派s at the Bank of England

By Daily Mail Reporter
Updated: 00:00 BST, 18 November 1999

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The 最新の 失業 人物／姿／数字s, the low est for 19 years, would seem to be good news for everyone except the Bank of England's 通貨の 政策 委員会. The minutes of the 最近の 会合, when it raised 利益／興味 率s by 0.25%, show the 委員会 in a surprisingly hawkish mood.

It 示唆するs that the next 利益／興味 率 rise may come sooner than had been 推定する／予想するd. City 経済学者s 示唆するd another 0.25% rise perhaps as 早期に as January.

When the Bank 発表するd its 増加する two weeks ago, it 拒絶する／低下するd to make any 声明 or 明らかにする／漏らす the 投票（する）. This led to the general 仮定／引き受けること that a couple of the usual 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑うs would have 投票（する）d for no change, with little or no 需要・要求する from anyone else for more than 0.25%.

However, it was not so. There was only dove 投票（する）ing against -- DeAnne Julius, almost 必然的に. By contrast, there were some members putting the 事例／患者 for a 0.5% rise. It was the 強化するing of the 労働 market which seemed to worry the 強硬派s most. And, of course, yesterday's 人物／姿／数字s show that it is still 強化するing.

The rise in unfilled vacancies, up 8,000 to 245,500, has 証明するd 井戸／弁護士席 above 期待s. The total is 3,800 higher than a year ago.

The 年４回の 人物／姿／数字 for 収入s now stands at 4.7% a year, instead of 4.9% last time. That should 静める 恐れるs at the Bank but probably won't.

The worry that 収入s are always about to 'take off' dogs much of the MPC's thinking. It takes the 見解（をとる） that anything over 4.5% is too hot for 慰安. The 証拠 for this is slender.

The 委員会, 特に the Bank's 代表者／国会議員s, also took the 見解（をとる） until very recently that any growth 人物／姿／数字 over 2.25% was also an alarm signal.

It has 明らかに been able to 受託する the 財務省 見解（をとる）, propounded in the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長's pre-予算 声明, that 2.5% is now a 安全な growth level.

The MPC has yet to 改訂する its 見解（をとる）s on a '安全な' 収入s levels which is what the new growth 人物／姿／数字 would seem to 需要・要求する.

In any 事例／患者, the 収入s 統計（学） are の中で the least reliable. MPC members discussed the problem in some 詳細（に述べる）. 普通の／平均（する） 収入s, によれば the Office of 国家の 統計（学） 索引, do not fit with what two other 非，不，無-公式の／役人 indices 示唆する.

But the 委員会 decided to stick with the gloomier 査定／評価.

There was much 長，率いる scratching about the tightness of the 労働 market. Maybe, the 委員会 mused, the pattern and the 影響 of the tighter 労働 markets was changing. But it was 'impossible' to quantify this. What せねばならない impress the MPC is the simple fact that 失業 has been 落ちるing と一緒に インフレーション - as インフレーション has been 落ちるing と一緒に growth, which has already been puzzling the 委員会.

It should not be such a surprise. The 破壊 of union 力／強力にする and more 競争 in general has changed the way we work. It has not 十分に changed the way the MPC thinks.

The greater 成果／努力s 存在 made to discourage the 気が進まない from sticking with the 施し物 should certainly be having some 影響.

One passage in the minutes 供給（する）s a slight hope that a 決定／判定勝ち（する） over 利益／興味 率s may not be too precipitate.

It was agreed that インフレーション will 下落する やめる a way before 加速するing に向かって the 2.5% 推定する／予想するd in two years time.

The 委員会 agreed that 'other things 存在 equal' (the 必然的な 資格), there was more time now to gather data before making 決定／判定勝ち（する）s.

However, other things - 顕著に the 労働 market - are likely to 証明する too unequal for the 強硬派s.

For the first time, one 無名の member of the 委員会 '調査するd' but did not 圧力（をかける） the argument that 利益／興味 率 changes of いっそう少なく than 0.25% might be appropriate in 未来. That would 申し込む／申し出 the 範囲 for a more 漸進的な approach, 特に if a small rise was 追加するd, say, the one made in September.

However, the general 見解（をとる） was that this would be 'misunderstood'. By whom and in what way? We are not told.

Surely one of the values of the minutes, 特に now that they are published only two weeks after the 月毎の 会合, i s that 推論する／理由ing behind a move can be explained in almost excruciating 詳細（に述べる）.

And if that is not 急速な／放蕩な enough, the Bank could always 問題／発行する an …を伴ってing 声明 at the time of a change.

Over at the 財務省, they have just published the 最新の 合意 of 経済学者s' 予測（する）s for next year. The 期待 is that growth will be 2.8%, fractionally up on their 予測s made last month.

We must hope that this does not 始める，決める off too many alarm bells at the Bank.