Why the 率-setters may soon have no choice

By Anthony Hilton for MailOnline
Updated: 00:00 BST, 11 May 1999

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The 予測 here last week that the strength of 英貨の／純銀の would 誘発する the Bank of England's 通貨の 政策 委員会 into a その上の 一連の会議、交渉／完成する of 利益／興味 率 削減（する）s, 証明するd to be wro ng.

Nothing happened, though the MPC did draw attention to its 関心 about the level of 英貨の／純銀の and さまざまな members, 含むing Bank of England 知事 Eddie George, have since been 明らかに trying to talk 英貨の／純銀の 負かす／撃墜する.

This is a dangerous game, because few central 銀行業者s or 政治家，政治屋s have ever managed a controlled slide in their 通貨's value. However, it has already brought 一連の会議、交渉／完成する City 経済学者s to the 見解（をとる） that the driver for その上の 削減（する）s in 率s will not be the 証拠不十分 of the economy but the strength of the 通貨.

But how long will the 委員会 wait and how high does the 通貨 need to go before the MPC feels compelled to 行為／法令／行動する? One 見解（をとる） is that it will do nothing unless 英貨の／純銀の moves 井戸／弁護士席 above three Deutschmarks. Another is that nothing will happen because from 中央の-year onwards the euro is 推定する／予想するd to 強化する, の近くにing the gap with 英貨の／純銀の and bringing the 続けざまに猛撃する 負かす／撃墜する of its own （許可，名誉などを）与える.

This could 井戸／弁護士席 be what the MPC is hoping for. Those looking after the euro have changed their tune and are now making it （疑いを）晴らす they do not want the 通貨 to 沈む any その上の. It would make sense for an MPC worried about overdoing 利益／興味 率 削減（する）s to wait and see if 成果／努力s to talk up the euro 後継する, because if they do it could solve the 英貨の／純銀の problem. The 危険, however, is that in, say, three months' time, things will still be very much as they are now, except that 輸出業者s and 農業者s will have had to 耐える another ４半期/4分の1 of strong 英貨の／純銀の. 必然的に some will not 生き残る.

Hyping the euro will not help much because its 証拠不十分 is essentially the other 味方する of the coin, which is dollar strength. The longer the US economy keeps にわか景気ing and the more evident the gap between European and American 率s of 経済成長, the more dollars will look a better bet than euros in the short 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語. In time the 悪化するing US 貿易（する） position should 逆転する the 傾向, and the glut of dollars sent overseas to 支払う／賃金 for ballooning 輸入するs should 原因（となる） the dollar e xchange 率 to 落ちる. But to 推定する／予想する a change by 中央の-summer seems to be stretching it, which puts the onus 支援する on the MPC.

The unspoken 恐れる is that even if the MPC does finally 行為／法令／行動する, there can be no 保証（人） that 利益／興味 率 削減（する）s will do the 職業 in bringing 負かす／撃墜する 英貨の／純銀の, for it is only one of several factors at play. But the 委員会 may すぐに be in a position where it has no choice but to try.

Stifled

必然的に, as one of the nation's best known active 基金 経営者／支配人s, she talked about indexation, making the valid point that the underperformance of active 経営者／支配人s against the 索引 is not a 推論する／理由 for switching to passive 投資 but a 推論する／理由 for switching to better active 経営者／支配人s who can （警官の）巡回区域，受持ち区域 the 索引.

She and her 同僚s at Soc Gen can afford to make such a suggestion because they have been の中で the best performers recently.

She also made the point that in contrast with America, few new 基金 管理／経営 groups were formed in Britain. 財政上の Services 当局 chairman Howard Davies should 公式文書，認める her comment that the regulatory and 同意／服従 環境 in the City and the nervousness of 会・原則s made it difficult for 基金 経営者／支配人s to 始める，決める up on their own without a big 支援者 to make them 信頼できる. The result was too few new entrants and innovators, which left （弁護士の）依頼人s with a 欠如（する） of choice.

A 事例／患者 of 規則 stifling 競争 to the detriment of the 消費者.