Brown's got it wrong 警告する bosses

By DAILY MAIL REPORTER
Updated: 00:00 BST, 26 February 1999

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Gordon Brown's 経済的な 戦略 was under fresh scrutiny last night after bosses' leaders 予報するd that Britain was 長，率いるing for a 行き詰まり.

The （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長's 確信して 誇る that 国家の wealth would continue to grow by between 1 and 1.5 per cent was 否定するd by a 警告 that growth would be の近くに to 無 in the first half of 1999.

The 暗い／優うつな 予測（する） （機の）カム in the 連合 of British Industr y's 最新の 年４回の 経済的な 予測（する）, a hugely 影響力のある 分析 which is taken 本気で at the 財務省 and in the City.

The CBI says in the 文書 that the best Mr Brown can 推定する／予想する is growth of half of one per cent over the whole of this year while there will be 非，不，無 at all in the first six months.

以前, the bosses' organisation had been 予報するing 経済成長 of 0.7 per cent for this year.

But 公式の／役人s downgraded the 予測（する） after 製造業の 産業 in particular failed to 生き返らせる as 急速な／放蕩な as had been hoped.

The CBI 報告（する）／憶測 says bosses 推定する／予想する the economy to bounce 支援する in time for 2000, although 失業 will continue to rise for two years.

The organisation's 予測s 土台を崩す the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長's 計算／見積りs.

Mr Brown will find it harder to rake together the cash for an extra £40billion of spending which he 発表するd in the last 予算, because 落ちるing 産業の outputa will 誘発する／引き起こす a more 長引かせるd 低迷 in 税金 歳入.

Even more embarrassingly, the CBI 人物／姿／数字s 示唆する Britain is teetering on the brink of 後退，不況, which Mr Brown has adamantly 主張するd he would 避ける.

If the growth 人物／姿／数字 落ちるs below 無, Britain will technically be in 後退，不況.

にもかかわらず the gloom, Kate Barker, the CBI's 長，指導者 経済的な 助言者, saw a silver lining. She said: 'Although we 推定する／予想する the economy to 攻撃する，衝突する a 行き詰まり in the first half of 1999, this should be short-lived. '製造業者s will be stuck in 後退，不況 for some months to come but many 部門s will escape the 下降 完全に.'

The 予測（する） of 近づく-無 growth in the first half of the year is in line with the Bank of England's 期待s, 明かすd in its インフレーション 報告（する）／憶測 earlier this month.

That 文書 警告するd Mr Brown that the economy would slide to the brink of 後退，不況.

インフレーション would stay low, 増加するing the 圧力 on the Bank's 通貨の 政策 委員会 to 削減（する） 利益／興味 率s again, 結局 落ちるing to 4.5 per cent by the end of the ye ar. But ーに関して／ーの点でs of 職業s, the price of Mr Brown's 政策s could be high.

The CBI 予報するs that 失業 will rise by 150,000 to 1.95million by the end of this year and reach 2.16million by the end of 2000.

Though it 強調する／ストレスs that Britain will 避ける an 完全な 後退，不況 - defined as a continuous six-month period with 無 growth - it still strikes a 用心深い 公式文書，認める, 警告 that the 危険s are 'delicately balanced'.

Sudhir Junankar, the CBI's associate director of 経済的な 分析, said the biggest danger was that the world economy would get worse and drag the country 負かす／撃墜する その上の.

In the CBI's separate 月毎の 産業の 傾向s 調査する - also published yesterday - about 45 per cent of 製造業者s say their orders are below normal this month while only ten per cent say they are above normal.

元気づける news, however, （機の）カム from 動きやすい phone 操作者 Orange. It 発表するd 計画（する）s to 新採用する 2,000 staff over the next two years as part of ambitious 拡大 planswhich will see it doublethe number of 従業員s in its 顧客 service 操作／手術.

At the same time, Rolls-Royce 発表するd it had won a £101million 取引，協定 to make engines for 通勤（学）者 jets in Poland - the first time the ポーランドの（人） 国家の 航空機による LOT has bought British.