Oil stokes up インフレーション 恐れるs

By ALEX BRUMMER FOR THE DAILY MAIL
Updated: 10:38 BST, 18 November 2009

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The sudden run-up in インフレーション could quickly start to 限界 the Bank of England's 政策 選択s.

The more than 二塁打ing of oil prices to $78-a-バーレル／樽 in the last 12 months is the main factor behind the resurgence of the 消費者 prices from 1.1% last month to 1.5% in October.

In the same month last year 石油 and oil prices fell by 6.1%, this time around they slipped by just 0.7%. As this paper has 報告（する）／憶測d, モーターing groups 推定する／予想する 石油 price at the pump to rise by 2p to 110p a litre by the end of the year.

One thing is 確かな with the cost of 石油 and 輸送（する）: Big oil, like the energy 公共事業（料金）／有用性s, are slow to 配達する the 利益s to 消費者s on the way 負かす／撃墜する but very quick to raise prices on the way up.

In much the same way as a weak dollar is one of the factors which has been 運動ing the 回復 in the oil price, so a weak 続けざまに猛撃する, 負かす／撃墜する by 25% over the last two years, means that we 支払う／賃金ing more for all the 商品／必需品s we 輸入する.

Oil and other 物価s are also 存在 driven up by 相場師s at a time when returns on 財政上の 資産s, like 政府 社債s, are disappointing because of quantitative 緩和 and low 公式の／役人 利益／興味 率s.

That could quickly change along with rising inflationary 期待s.

The markets 明確に see some straws in the 勝利，勝つd in the 最新の インフレーション data with the 続けざまに猛撃する hitting a two-month high against the euro and の近くにing up against the dollar at $1.68.

The switch in direction was helped along by 上昇傾向 comments on the economy from 通貨の 政策 委員会 member Andrew Sentance.

The 仮定／引き受けること must be that the Bank, having printed £200bn of money, is の近くに to taking the proverbial 'punch bowl' away. The hope must be that the drunk that is the British economy, the last of the 前進するd nations out of 後退，不況, will be able to stand up on its own.

Grand gesture

Just when Cadbury was beginning to think there would be no 挑戦者 to Kraft's 哀れな 申し込む／申し出 for the company, up pops an elegant chap in a white tie with a 提案. Unfortunately, 詳細（に述べる）s of the 見込みのある 同盟 with family-controlled Ferrero have only been 株d with the Italian マスコミ so far. But as in many family 会社／堅いs, there are 緊張s. And the suggestion is the younger Ferreros wouldn't mind an 適切な時期 to cash out.

What is astonishing is that until now Ferrero has not been の中で the 指名するs bandied around as 見込みのある 入札者s or white knights to save Cadbury from Kraft. It is also 価値（がある） 公式文書，認めるing that にもかかわらず the many 適切な時期s 申し込む／申し出d to Nestle and Hershey to 正式に 支配する themselves out they have kept their silence. Under the 計画／陰謀 輪郭（を描く）d, Ferrero - 製造者 of Nutella, Tic-Tacs, the 競争相手 Kinder egg and iconic gold wrapped hazelnut chocolates - would 連合させる with 財政上の 投資家s to bring the two companies together.

分析家s were quick to see the Cadbury-Ferrero as 信頼できる 部隊 in 影響 creating a high-growth European chocolate 支持する／優勝者 有能な of challenging 火星-Wrigley and other players. Smaller than Cadbury, Ferrero is known best around the world for its elegant marketing. It has 年次の sales of £5.5bn, 18 factories and 雇うs 21,600 people.

With the 詳細（に述べる） so fuzzy the market was taking the Ferrero proposition coolly although Cadbury 株 辛勝する／優位d up and at 785p are still way above the Kraft 申し込む／申し出. The big hope at Cadbury HQ in Uxbridge must be that the flicker of 利益／興味 from an 予期しない ４半期/4分の1 might tempt bigger players into the 戦う／戦い. Then there could really be a seasonal みごたえのある.

令状ing wills

A year after 全世界の banking （機の）カム as の近くに to 炉心溶融 as at anytime during the last century 労働, in its most important piece of 法律制定 before leaving office, will today 輪郭（を描く） its 提案s for banking 改革（する） in the Queen's Speech. What has 逮捕（する）d the imagination so far is the grandstanding 提案 of City 大臣 Lord Paul Myners to introduce 法律 which would 許す 政府 to 廃止する 特別手当 契約s. Far more important than this, however, is the 'too big to fail 審議'. The 知事 Mervyn King does not appear to have 伸び（る）d much traction for his proposa l that 公共事業（料金）／有用性 banks and casino banks be separated in a reprise of Glass-Steagall.

What does have support, 含むing that of the 連邦の Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, is the idea of 'living wills' which would 許す the 投資 banking arm of a 全世界の／万国共通の bank to be shut 負かす／撃墜する, without jeopardising the ability of the bank to keep the cash points topped up. This together with some 肉親，親類d of 処理／取引s 税金 - 目的（とする）d at 冷静な／正味のing the use of exotic 器具s - would be far more 効果的な than 'dangerous dog' 対策 which 干渉する with 契約 法律.