Bank 持つ／拘留するs 率s and quantitative 緩和

By Adrian Lowery
Updated: 14:03 BST, 7 January 2010

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利益／興味 率s were kept at 0.5% today, with the cap remaining on quantitative 緩和, at the Bank of England's policymaking 会合.

The Bank's 通貨の 政策 委員会 left the bank 率 at 0.5% and made no 新規加入 to its £200bn 資産-購入（する）ing programme for a second month.

In November, the MPC 増加するd QE from £175bn in what most 分析家s believe will be the last 増加する of 基金s for the 計画／陰謀.

最近の 経済的な data have 支えるd hopes that the UK's 経済的な 回復 may not be as 壊れやすい as 恐れるd.

The 最新の services 部門 調査する data 示すd the eighth month of activity growth in December - a 重要な 調印する of 経済的な health, given the 部門's dominance.

Earlier in the week, 製造業者s were 明らかにする／漏らすd to have enjoyed their best month for two years during December, while the number of mortgages 認可するd for house 購入（する） in November also reached the highest level since March 2008.

追加するd to this was much-needed 確定／確認 that the Bank's QE 上げる is finally working, with an 増加する in the broader money 供給（する）.

The resulting 不確定 over inflationary 圧力s that might be building up in the economy could make the MPC's 職業 difficult in the coming months.

The £200bn 充てるd to QE will have been used up next month, and that means the February MPC 会合 will be watched closely for the Bank's prognosis on the 回復.

The MPC will have its next 年４回の インフレーション 報告（する）／憶測 by then and will know whether, and how 堅固に, the UK pulled out of 後退，不況 in the final ４半期/4分の1 of 2009.

? Why the UK bank may not rise for another year

'In 予定 course, the 審議 is likely to 転換 from whether the 委員会 should 許可／制裁 more QE to whether it should 強化する. Members will be mindful of balancing the 危険 of the economy 立ち往生させるing against 恐れるs of higher インフレーション (ありそうもない in our 見解（をとる）) and a 脅し of an 資産 price 泡 building up again.'

It is likely to be some while, however, before the MPC feels 確信して enough about the 回復 to start raising 利益／興味 率s. 分析家s are はっきりと divided over the 見通し for the first 率 rise.

Shaw at Investec 譲歩するs it is possible that the Bank 率 remains at 0.5% all year, 特に if a sharp 強化するing in 財政政策 is 発表するd after the 選挙.

'However, we still consider that it will become ますます difficult to 正当化する 率s の近くに to 無 as the 回復 広げるs and as bank balance sheets 強化する 徐々に. Hence we remain in the （軍の）野営地，陣営 which 推定する／予想するs the MPC to start 強化するing 政策 around 中央の?year.'

一方／合間 Azad Zangana, European 経済学者 at Schroders, says that, 'With the UK's 傾向 to experience "二塁打-下落する" 後退，不況s, the MPC are ありそうもない to raise 利益／興味 率s until a 支えるd 回復 is 確かな - かもしれない not until the fourth ４半期/4分の1 of 2010.'

? What will the bank 率 be at the end of 2010?