連合's luck on economy has run out

By THIS IS MONEY
Updated: 08:53 BST, 26 January 2011

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If there was any danger that the 連合 was slipping into complacency about the economy it will have been shaken by the last 48 hours.

It is bad enough when companies - from HMV to Tesco - come up with 北極の 天候 explanations for poor 業績／成果.

But it gives some reality to all those snow excuses when the Office for 国家の 統計（学） does the same.

Th e market reaction is 都合よく predictable, with the 続けざまに猛撃する slipping more than 1% and the prices of 株 and 政府 在庫／株s 事情に応じて変わる.

The 即座の 見解（をとる） is that stagnation has for the moment outflanked インフレーション which has been the main worry in 最近の weeks.

In his speech in Newcastle last night Mervyn King, the 知事 of the Bank of England, explains the インフレーション phenomena in graphic 詳細（に述べる）. He argues that the combination of rising prices and 沈滞した 収入s has 原因（となる）d real 給料 to 落ちる 支援する to 2005 levels, the biggest squeeze on incomes since the 1920s.

King is only one 発言する／表明する の中で nine on the 通貨の 政策 委員会 but he does not sound like a person dying to show his hair shirt by raising 利益／興味 率s.

He makes the important point that although there are some 指示，表示する物s that inflationary 期待s have started to rise, they have not fed their way into the arteries of the economy in the 形態／調整 of 行う 需要・要求するs.

It is possible that, as in the distant past, unions and 従業員s will behave irrationally and put 支払う／賃金 増加するs above 職業 安全. But there are no 調印するs of that yet.

What does all this mean for the markets? A わずかに 女性 続けざまに猛撃する will do the economy no 害（を与える） and will keep life a little easier for 輸出業者s, which are the 広大な／多数の／重要な hope of the economy.

Cash savers, unfortunately, are likely to remain losers if 利益／興味 率s remain where they are and the banks do not 改善する returns.

にもかかわらず the 後退 for the FTSE 100, which dropped 支援する modestly, the growth numbers should not change the 根底となるs 運動ing 公正，普通株主権s.

Most of Britain's 長，指導者 (n)役員／(a)執行力のあるs remain 焦点（を合わせる）d globally, によれば a PwC 報告（する）／憶測 ahead of Davos. So it is the UK 輸出（する）ing companies, together with those companies with a large 足跡 in 現れるing markets, which should continue to do 井戸／弁護士席.

Burberry, which is going a 爆弾 in the brand-obsessed Asian markets, and other big players 含むing Tesco, HSBC and Vodafone should continue to prospe r.

The growth 干ばつ at home might, paradoxically, help 公正，普通株主権s.

Repelling raiders

A コンビナート／複合体 and uneven 経済的な background, with happiness and unhappiness spread around, should make an exciting 環境 for 基金 経営者／支配人s. There is very little in F&C's 最新の 声明 to the market to get the 血 running faster.

But that is not surprising as it is a 基金 経営者／支配人 in 移行, moving from unexciting 保険 基金s up the value chain in to more 活発に managed, higher 利ざや 商売／仕事. The new 商売／仕事 flows, 除外するing 保険, 示唆する that a very old dog can learn new tricks.

But it 直面するs an 上りの／困難な 戦う／戦い in keeping Edward Bramson's Sherborne, supported by Aviva with some 26% of 投票（する）ing 力／強力にする, off the deck.

There is, however, nothing in Sherborne's history - other than the Aviva 関係 - to 示唆する that its 予定する of directors will be a 安全な pair of 手渡すs for a group with 資産s under 管理／経営 of £105.8bn.

If Sherborne-Aviva were really serious about this they would have gone 負かす／撃墜する the 企て，努力，提案 大勝する rather than leaving 少数，小数派 投資家s (not to について言及する millions of savers in the 基金s) exposed to an unproven new 管理／経営.

This week we saw with De La Rue that a board that stands 会社／堅い can 勝利，勝つ. F&C has put up a gritty fight on both 業績／成果 and the opaque 記録，記録的な／記録する of the invaders.

Uncommitted 株主s must repel the buccaneers.

相互の madness

It used to be that when a small building society ran into difficulties a friendly 隣人 in the 相互の movement would come along and 保護する the 利益／興味s of members. This does not seem to happen any more.

JC Flowers, 設立するd and run by a former Goldman Sachs 投資 銀行業者, has won final 是認 from the 財政上の Services 当局 to take 支配（する）／統制する of the Kent 依存 Building Society, which had run short of 資本／首都.

Given JC Flowers' 記録，記録的な／記録する as a 仲買人 in banks and banking 株 across the globe it is har d to see this as an altruistic 行為／法令／行動する which will 利益 members or 保存する mutuality over the longer 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語.

Some see it as the foothold from which the Flowers （独立の）存在 Onesavings plc will 企て，努力，提案 for Northern 激しく揺する. Does our 財政上の 部門 really need another former 投資 銀行業者 on the make?