MONDAY VIEW by DANNY GABAY: Why Boris has got it wrong on the Greek 危機

By Danny Gabay
Updated: 22:41 BST, 3 July 2011

Over 最近の weeks it has been nigh on impossible to switch on the TV, 無線で通信する or the internet without 審理，公聴会 or reading about Greece’s 会計の travails.

And you may have wondered on more than one occasion why, beyond the obvious human 利益／興味 and the possible 衝撃 it might have on your summer holiday 計画（する）s, you should care about the problems of a country that accounts for いっそう少なく than 0.25 per cent of the UK’s total 輸出（する）s.

After all, we’re not in the euro. And British banks have very little direct （危険などに）さらす to Greece.

Greek 危機: 市長 of London Boris Johnson has 勧めるd 負債-ridden Greece to leave the euro and enter a 明言する／公表する of 'Byronic 解放'

If so, you are in good company: British 政治家，政治屋s from across the political spectrum from David Cameron to Jack Straw have been doing their best to distance the UK from Greece.

And Boris Johnson has gone その上の, 勧めるing the Greeks to leave the euro and enter a 明言する／公表する of ‘Byronic 解放’. Moreover, most market 関係者s would seem to agree, taking 慰安 from the fact that the UK’s direct （危険などに）さらす to Greece is 限られた／立憲的な. Unfortunately, they are all wrong.

The notion that Greece can or should be encouraged to 落ちる alone is not just fanciful, it is downright dangerous. It is 支配する to a basic fallacy, which is that Greece’s problems are unique to Greece and the 解答 to them therefore lies with its 11million 国民s.

The reality is that this is still the same banking 危機 ? the origins of Greece’s 危機 are the same as those that 結局 （海，煙などが）飲み込むd Lehman’s.

Worse still it betrays a 失敗 to しっかり掴む the 選び出す／独身 most important lesson of the Lehman Brothers debacle, which is that in the modern 財政上の system, we are all interconnected.

Greece is not ‘Europe’s Lehman’s’ ? that is Spain ? but it is Europe’s sub-prime borrower. By 2010, Greece had managed to amass a total 負債 of ?340billion or 155 per cent of its 国民所得.

That equates to a 負債 of ?30,000 for every man, woman and child, in a country where the 普通の／平均（する） 行う is only ?20,000 per 年. There is no way it can かもしれない 支払う／賃金 支援する this 負債, no 事柄 how many bailouts are thrown at it. A default is 簡単に arithmetically 必然的な.

This is not to absolve Greece, やめる the opposite. 連続する Greek 政府s have やめる 率直に taken the mickey since getting in to the euro.

But Greece could not have borrowed its way into penury without willing 貸す人s. So, who was the bigger fool, the Greeks for borrowing so much, or the 残り／休憩（する） of the world for lending to them?

And while it may be true that UK banks’ direct （危険などに）さらす to Greece is 比較して manageable ? though their （危険などに）さらす to the 残り／休憩（する） of the eurozone periphery (Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy) より勝るs their 核心 資本／首都 base ? it is their 可能性のある indirect （危険などに）さらす that should really worry us.

First of all, UK banks have lent a lot of money to other European banks, おもに French and German, which in turn have lent plenty to periphery economies like Greece. 明白に if the European banks don’t get paid by their periphery borrowers they will have little liquidity to 満足させる the （人命などを）奪う，主張するs of their British creditors.

But even more worryingly, British and American banks may 直面する 抱擁する losses 予定 to their （危険などに）さらす 経由で credit default 交換（する）s and other forms of 貸付金 保証（人）s. CDS are 基本的に a form of 保険, whereby the 販売人 約束s to 返す the 買い手 for any losses incurred by a default in 交流 for a 賞与金.

These are the 肉親，親類d of derivative 契約s which London and New York have specialised in. We cannot be sure what the 規模 of the ultimate （危険などに）さらす is.

Most market 関係者s take 慰安 from the fact that the 逮捕する value of CDS 優れた on Greece is just $5billion, while the 甚だしい／１２ダース is の近くに to $80billion. Interestingly, the 逮捕する CDS （危険などに）さらす to Lehman’s on the morning it went 破産した／（警察が）手入れする was also just $5billion, compared with a 甚だしい／１２ダース value of $72billion.

The 底（に届く） line is that it is not in anyone’s 利益／興味, 含むing ours, to see a messy Greek default. The best 結果 for all is that the default is managed within the euro.

You might have hoped that a 市長 of London would understand tha t.

Danny Gabay is a director of Fathom 財政上の 協議するing