Is a big 刺激 一括 on way? City hopes raised ahead of Bernanke's Jackson 穴を開ける speech

By Tanya Jefferies

Updated: 09:27 BST, 31 August 2012

A その上の slug of 刺激 for the struggling U.S. economy could be 発表するd in a hotly-心配するd speech by central bank supremo Ben Bernanke today.

Market 選挙立会人s are 推測するing furiously over the prospect of another 一連の会議、交渉／完成する of quantitative 緩和 - popularly referred to as QE3 - 存在 明かすd at a '討論会' for central 銀行業者s at Jackson 穴を開ける in Wyoming.

刺激 活動／戦闘 in the U.S., the world's biggest economy, is so 影響力のある that it 解除するs 株式市場s around the world.

大きくする ?

Idyllic: Central 銀行業者s enjoy an 年次の 逃亡 at picturesque Jackson 穴を開ける in Wyoming

But this year, the 予期しない no-show of European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi at Jackson 穴を開ける is 原因（となる）ing almost as much of a 動かす as Bernanke's 基本方針演説.

It 現れるd only two days ago that Draghi had cancelled his trip to the idyllic mountain 訴える手段／行楽地, 誘発するing rumours he was staying home to work on a major 刺激 告示 of his own for the troubled eurozone.

So what do City 専門家s think Bernanke will tell his fellow central 銀行業者s - and what do they reckon Draghi is ハッチング 支援する at his （警察，軍隊などの）本部 in Frankfurt?

What does the City say?

'Everyone is trying to second-guess the Fed and decipher the mixed messages coming out of the central bank,' said David Morrison, 上級の market strategist at GFT Markets.

'On 最高の，を越す of this, many 投資家s remain 納得させるd that Ben Bernanke will give a （疑いを）晴らす signal over the Fed's 意向s in his speech, rather than waiting until the 連邦の Open Market 委員会 (FOMC) 会合 on 12/13 September.

'But it is looking ますます likely that the ECB 率 決定／判定勝ち（する） and Mario Draghi's 圧力（をかける） 会議／協議会 on 6 September will turn out to be the bigger 取引，協定.

'Given the 最近の 改良 in U.S. 経済的な data, the fact that "操作／手術 新たな展開" [a 刺激 手段 目的（とする）d at keeping U.S. 利益／興味 率s low] runs through to year-end and the 大統領の 選挙 takes place in November, the FOMC may prefer to sit on its 手渡すs for now.

'But the problems in the eurozone remain 激烈な／緊急の. So far, 君主 社債 産する／生じるs [政府 利益／興味 率s] are 負かす／撃墜する, and 公正，普通株主権 prices up, on the 期待 that the ECB is ready to 発表する a fresh and 重要な 介入 of its own.

'その結果, any 失望 tomorrow (should Ben Bernanke's speech far short of 期待s) could quickly be 相殺する by hopes of a big 刺激 一括 存在 発表するd by Mario Draghi next week.'

Downtown: Mountain 訴える手段／行楽地 of Jackson 穴を開ける hosts central 銀行業者 討論会 every year

Simon Denham of 資本／首都 Spreads said: 'The 期待 that the ECB is going to 介入する in the European 社債 markets to cap peripheral 社債 産する／生じるs is reaching fever pitch.

'For weeks now 投資家s have been waiting and waiting for Mario Draghi to 発表する his 計画（する）s and there’s a growing sense that we are nearer to such an 告示.

'The fact that he is not …に出席するing tomorrow’s central 銀行業者 get together 存在 hosted by Ben Bernanke at Jackson 穴を開ける is 重要な enough in itself... but on the other 手渡す 公正，普通株主権s have become tired of waiting and 重さを計るd 負かす／撃墜する by the continual 消極的な 経済的な data.

'The tussle between the ECB and European 政治家，政治屋s is mostly to 非難する for the 行き詰まり with the former 説 it’s up to the latter to change the structure of the European 事業／計画（する） so it can 解放（する） its firepower, but the latter are 辞退するing to let the former 請け負う any sort of 活動／戦闘 権利 now when it is so 猛烈に needed.

'Since the 政治家，政治屋s continue to 滞る it has become more and more 緊急の for the ECB to do something ーするために bring 負かす／撃墜する the borrowing costs of peripheral Europe, in particular the likes of Spain and Italy.

'失業 is not getting any lower and 経済的な activity continues to 立ち往生させる 原因（となる）ing growth to 拒絶する／低下する all the way across the eurozone.'

Andrew Morris of 署名, the 大臣の地位 経営者／支配人 to （弁護士の）依頼人s of 財政上の 助言者 Rowan Dartington, 公式文書，認めるd that important 政策-signalling 告示s have been made at the 年次の Fed 討論会 at Jackson 穴を開ける in the past.

But he 追加するd: 'One 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑うs that this year, in the 直面する of 最近の reasonable U.S. 雇用 data and the 近づいている 選挙, the Fed chairman will resist explicit 約束s of 活動／戦闘 at this point.

'He will also be very aware that his 道具 box is becoming ever more 使い果たすd and thus その上の 活動／戦闘 would need to be ますます 慣習に捕らわれない. In 新規加入, much of the headwinds that the economy is 直面するing, not least the Eurozone and the 減産／沈滞 in 中国, are beyond the Fed’s 支配（する）／統制する.

'In stark contrast Mario Draghi, 長，率いる of the European Central Bank, finds himself in a very different, but much more difficult position. His 活動／戦闘s to date have been やめる 限られた／立憲的な by comparison, 予定 to the ECB 委任統治（領） which makes 介入 in the 社債 markets much more challenging.'

Morris said that peripheral eurozone economies were crying out for central bank support in the 直面する of the 抱擁する 苦痛 and 収縮過程 原因（となる）d by 緊縮 対策. However, Draghi has to navigate between a very 制限する 委任統治（領） and the 反対s of the German central bank.

…に出席するing: Ben Bernanke will 配達する 基本方針 speech at Jackson 穴を開ける 集会

Absent: Mario Draghi 突然に cancelled his trip to Wyoming

マイク Ingram, markets 分析家 at BGC Partners, said the Jackson 穴を開ける 討論会 was probably going to disappoint Fed 選挙立会人s hoping for an 早期に 手がかり（を与える） that it was reloading QE.

'That will probably have to wait until the 地位，任命する-大統領の 選挙 会合 in December. The September FOMC is likely to be? serving thin gruel of more assertive 言葉の 介入 of the "lower for longer" variety and more "we stand ready".

'Looking at the 現在の 明言する／公表する of play with both the ECB and the Fed, it seems to me that market 期待s of central bank hyperactivity in September are likely to be 失望させるd.

'To be sure, a 全世界の 経済的な 減産／沈滞 is 現在進行中の, and more central bank 刺激 will almost certainly be 令状d in the months ahead, but September could 井戸／弁護士席 証明する to be a 事例／患者 of a lot of talk but very little 有形の 活動／戦闘.

'Central 銀行業者s’ words have helped support markets for the last few months. How long can that continue?'