Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama: a Demolition Derby

By Gavin Esler
Updated: 22:54 BST, 23 April 2008

The Democratic 大統領の 選挙 contest is turning into the one thing neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama 手配中の，お尋ね者: a Demolition Derby.

Instead of a （疑いを）晴らす 勝利者, it's become a race in circles on a dirt 跡をつける with plenty of 破壊 and no end in sight.

にもかかわらず 上院議員 Clinton's nine per cent 勝利，勝つ in Pennsylvania yesterday only one （疑いを）晴らす 勝利者 is 現れるing from the 難破? -? the 共和国の／共和党の 候補者, 上院議員 John McCain.

As Clinton and Obama 準備する to slug it out all the way to the party 条約 in August, McCain can rise above the mud-slinging and appear 大統領の.

Scroll 負かす／撃墜する for more

粘着するing on: Hillary and 法案 Clinton celebrate in Pennsylvania

The danger of their 状況／情勢 is not lost on the 民主党員s. On the eve of the Pennsylvania 投票（する）, an American comedian asked 上院議員 Obama if he has nightmares about waking up next year in the White House, after he has become 大統領，／社長, and finding Hillary Clinton is STILL running against him?

Obama had the good grace to laugh but with Clinton 宣言するing that Americans deserve 'a 大統領，／社長 who doesn't やめる,' he may wonder if the only thing which will stop her now is a 火刑／賭ける driven through her heart a t midnight.

For months? -? it seems like years? -? Democratic and 共和国の／共和党の strategists have been planning how they want this 選挙 to go.

The 民主党員s' 計画（する） was 概略で this: George Bush's 手足を不自由にする／（物事を）損なうing unpopularity would help Hillary and Barack excite the American people with the prospect of ending the Bush 時代.

The next 大統領，／社長 would, for the first time, be a woman or a youthful African American. All 肉親，親類d of people, 特に the young who had not 投票（する）d before, would come to the 投票s.

A new political 世代 would be born. No 事柄 whether Obama or Clinton topped the Democratic ticket, they would 虐殺（する） the 年輩の McCain in November in a 圧勝 for 'change'.

Now it looks very different. The 民主党員s cannot decisively choose a 候補者. Obama has the most 委任する／代表s, most money and わずかに more popular 投票（する）s, but Hillary has won all the big 明言する／公表するs.

Obama's 失敗 to 勝利，勝つ big in California, New York, Illinois or Pennsylvania has to be a worry for the 民主党員s if he is their 支持する／優勝者 in November. Worse, Obama talked of ending the 汚い politics of the past and yet? -? as one 最高の，を越す 共和国の／共和党の recently pointed out to me? -? here is Mr Clean getting 負かす／撃墜する in the mud with Hillary.

As for Hillary, she is 損失d too. If she were to 現れる as the Democratic 候補者, how would she 打ち勝つ the terrible opinion 投票 news that a whopping 60 per cent of the American people say they do not 信用 her?

Scroll 負かす／撃墜する for more

Next 戦う／戦い: Barack and Michelle Obama （選挙などの）運動をするing in Indiana

Some have never 信用d the Clintons, but she made 事柄s even worse when she 誤って （人命などを）奪う，主張するd that as first lady she had come under 狙撃者 解雇する／砲火／射撃 on a visit to the Balkans in the 1990s.

Every American TV テレビ視聴者 could see pictures of something very different. There was Hillary strolling around an 明らかに 平和的な Tuzla airport. And if she lied about that, 投票者s must be thinking, what else will she 嘘（をつく） about?

In 20 years of covering U.S. 大統領の 選挙運動s, I have never seen one as strange as this. What we are 証言，証人／目撃するing is Democratic 投票者s coughing up millions of dollars in 寄付s to watch the two brightest 星／主役にするs in their party （警官の）巡回区域，受持ち区域 the living daylights out of each other.

As the contest gets nastier by the week, it 現在のs both 候補者s with a terrible 窮地. Do they continue in the mud, 損失ing each other? -? or does one of them try to rise above it, and 危険 存在 thought of as weak? < /p>

Some want Hillary to やめる. But after her 勝利，勝つ in Pennsylvania, why would she get out of the way to help a man who ますます seems to irritate her, with 勢い 明らかに behind her （選挙などの）運動をする now? The Democratic party grandee who goes in to tell Hillary to get out of the race had better be wearing Kevlar 団体／死体 armour over his grey 控訴.

Come the Democratic party 条約 in Denver in August a bunch of almost 800 so- called '最高の-委任する／代表s' 会合，会う to choose the 候補者. 普通は it is a 形式順守. They 簡単に 是認する the （疑いを）晴らす 勝利者 from the 最初の／主要なs.

But, assuming there is no （疑いを）晴らす 勝利者, can you imagine the scene if a handful of エリート 'superdelegates' decide on Obama or Clinton, against the 表明する wishes of about half their party? Tens of millions of 民主党員s who 投票（する）d for the other person may be aggrieved. 調査するing the 難破, 共和国の／共和党のs cannot believe their luck. Recently I spent time with a very 井戸／弁護士席-connected Washington 共和国の／共和党の I've known since the 1990s. He is 高度に 同志／支持者 but usually reliable.

Some of what he told me might be spin but some is 明確に not.

Looking 大統領の

First, he said, the 共和国の／共和党のs were delighted to watch Clinton and Obama 涙／ほころび lumps from each other 'for as long as possible,' wasting money while McCain saves his cash and travels around the world 'looking 大統領の'? -? he has already met Gordon Brown and visited the Middle East. Then he explained that his party strategists really hope Clinton 勝利，勝つs the Democratic 指名／任命 because 'our people hate her so much she gets out the 共和国の／共和党の vot e'.

The 60 per cent who do not 信用 Hillary are a delight to the 共和国の／共和党のs.

Obama, my 接触する says, is much more of a problem, partly because he is not a hate-人物／姿／数字 for 共和国の／共和党のs as Hillary is, partly because so many Americans like the idea of a 黒人／ボイコット 大統領，／社長, but mostly because of the age factor.

'You put a 46-year-old [Obama] next to a 71-year-old [McCain] and you tell people this 選挙 is about the 未来? -? which one do you think they'll 投票（する） for?' he asked.

And that is why the next thing he told me is so 利益／興味ing, although it is impossible to check. He （人命などを）奪う，主張するd that there was a stack of dirt to come out on Obama, and his 熱烈な hope was that Hillary would make it all public, doing the dirty work 'so we don't have to'.

It is perfectly possible my 接触する was deliberately spreading rumours, though the 共和国の／共和党のs (like the Clinton （選挙などの）運動をする and many 新聞記者／雑誌記者s) are definitely going over Obama's 記録，記録的な／記録する with a microscope.

My 共和国の／共和党の 接触する also 示唆するd that Obama's wife Michelle will make big waves because she 'makes Cherie Blair look like a pussycat'.

Since that conversation, Obama has been embroiled in a number of tricky problems, 含むing a 列／漕ぐ／騒動 over the 見解（をとる）s of his clergyman friend Jeremiah Wright, who （人命などを）奪う，主張するd that America brought 9/11 on itself, and his 協会 with 法案 Ayers, now a 尊敬（する）・点d academic but once a member of the Sixties テロリスト-style group The Weathermen.

So, in this year when the 民主党員s were so 確かな of victory, is the 勝利，勝つd beginning to change?

解任する the gossip

解任する all the gossip about dirt and dirty tricks for now and concentrate on what is already public. While the party 反目，不和ing continues, two 声明s may come to haunt and 弱める Obama if he does 現れる as the Democratic 候補者.

His wife told a 最近の 決起大会／結集させる in Milwaukee, Wisconsin: 'For the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country. And not just because Barack has done 井戸／弁護士席, but because I think people are hungry for change.

'And I have been desperate to see our country moving in that direction and just not feeling so alone in my 失望／欲求不満 and 失望.'

Keen Democratic 支持者s of Obama have told me they were shocked by that 発言／述べる. It 簡単に is not done for the wife of a 可能性のある 大統領，／社長 of the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs to 収容する／認める that there was a time when she was NOT proud of her country.

And there was something 潜在的に more 損失ing from Obama himself this month. 反映するing on white, working-class Americans, he said: 'It's not surprising that they get bitter, they 粘着する to guns or 宗教 or 反感 に向かって people who aren't like them'.

Whether Obama is 権利 or not in this 観察 is beside the point. If he is the Democratic party 候補者 in November, that comment will be played over and over again in the autumn （選挙などの）運動をする.

On the 右翼 U.S. TV 網状組織s, you can bet you will hear Obama's words almost as often as the 商業のs.

共和国の／共和党のs will make sure their people have badges reading 'I'm not bitter' or 'Yeah, I 粘着する to God', in the hope of 押し進めるing 投票者s even その上の away from the 民主党員s.

観察するing Clinton and Obama attack each other I'm struck by an old story often ascribed to the late Willie Whitelaw, Mrs Thatcher's 副 首相.

He was once taking a young 保守的な around the ありふれたs. 'This is where we sit,' Whitelaw said. The young man pointed excitedly to the other 味方する of the ありふれたs. 'And I suppose that must be where the enemy sits,' he joked.

'Not a bit of it,' Whitelaw 訂正するd him. 'That's the 対立. The enemy is always on your own 味方する.'

It is a story which should keep Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and every loyal Democratic 支持者 awake at night as the Demolition Derby moves on to Indiana and North Carolina on May 6.

The 民主党員s have developed an unfortunate 評判 for 存在 a party that never 行方不明になるs the 適切な時期 to 行方不明になる an 適切な時期. 井戸／弁護士席, 2008 could still be their year of 適切な時期? -? but only if their 候補者 in November has not been fatally 負傷させるd by the fight to get there.

? Gavin Esler has been covering the 大統領の （選挙などの）運動をする for BBC2's Newsnight.