Britain 直面するs first hung 議会 in 36 years after Tory lead slips

By James Chapman for the Daily Mail
Updated: 11:54 BST, 1 February 2010

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Britain is on course for its first hung 議会 since 1974, によれば the 最新の opinion 投票s.

The Tories are 持続するing a healthy lead over 労働, but without 十分な支援 to give David Cameron an 全体にわたるありふれたs 大多数.

MPs 恐れる the party’s New Year 押し進める - featuring posters of Mr Cameron looking airbrushed - has backfired, while the central message on spending 削減（する）s has appeared muddled in 最近の days.

Camerons on 最高の，を越す: James Cameron's Avatar is topping the charts - but its on its way up unlike David Cameron, 権利, whose lead in the 最新の投票s is 縮むing

上級の保守的なs are now making contingency 計画（する）s for a second 総選挙 in the event that Mr Cameron has to form a 少数，小数派政府.

対策 on 移民／移住, householders’ 権利s, 商売／仕事税金s and an 初期の一連の会議、交渉／完成する of spending 削減（する）s would be 器具／実施するd before the Tory leader went to the country again 捜し出すing a stronger 委任統治（領）.

A BPIX 投票 for the Mail on Sunday 示唆するd a slip in support for the Co nservatives, putting them on 39 per cent, 労働 on 30 and the 自由主義の民主党員s on 18.

It was the first time for more than two years that the 保守的なs’ 率ing had fallen below 40 per cent in a BPIX 投票.

If the 人物／姿／数字s were repeated in an 選挙, the Tories would be 軍隊d to form a 協定／条約 with the 自由主義の民主党員s or Ulster Unionists to 治める／統治する.

A YouGov 調査する put the 保守的なs on 40 per cent, 労働 on 31 and the 自由主義の民主党員s on 18.

That would leave the 保守的なs eight seats short of an 全体にわたる大多数 and again 捜し出すing partners in a hung 議会.

The new 人物／姿／数字s come as 上級の Tory 公式の／役人s 解任するd （人命などを）奪う，主張するs of 政策 differences between Mr Cameron and 影をつくる／尾行する（ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 George Osborne.

によれば one 報告（する）／憶測, members of Mr Osborne’s 財務省 team were surprised at Mr Cameron’s 声明 on Friday that spending 削減（する）s would not be ‘特に広範囲にわたる’ in the first year of a Tory 政府.

Mr Osborne is also said to be ‘unenthusiastic’ about Mr Cameron’s 約束 ? 再確認するd in 最近の weeks ? to introduce 税金 breaks for married couples.

Last hung 議会: Ex-PM Harold Wilson with wife Mary outside No 10 in 1974

In 新規加入, he is said to want to copy 労働’s 選挙 ‘誓約（する） card’ on the grounds 投票者s are not yet 納得させるd they will better off under the 保守的なs.

Mr Cameron is understood to be against the idea, arguing that it 欠如（する）s originality.

However, 保守的な insiders say （人命などを）奪う，主張するs that the pair have fallen out are ‘完全にする nonsense’. One 上級の補佐官 said: ‘They are like peas in a pod. They agree on 事実上 all the main 問題／発行するs and always have.

‘They have just been to the Davos 経済的な首脳会議 toget her and spent hours chatting and socialising together.

'They even travelled together. The 推論する／理由 they 連合させるd their offices ? and ーするつもりである to do so if we 勝利，勝つ the 選挙 ? is 正確に because there is 完全にする信用 between them.’