EXCLUSIVEThe 緊急発進する for Antarctica's 黒人／ボイコット gold: How ロシアの 発見 of 抱擁する oil reserves in UK 領土 has made Falkland Islands the 'world's most 価値のある real 広い地所'... with Putin and Xi 注目する，もくろむing treasure under frozen seas
- More than half a 一兆 バーレル／樽s of oil and gas were 報道によれば 設立する underneath Antarctica by Russia?
- An international 条約 妨げるs countries from touching it, over 環境の 恐れるs?
- But 専門家s 警告するd that 中国 and Russia are not to be 信用d, and would get their 手渡すs on it at any cost?
深い beneath the 厳しい wasteland of the 南極の shelf lies a prize hundreds of millions of years in the making.
For more than 150 years, wars have been fought for 接近 to oil, the 厚い, 黒人／ボイコット ooze that the world has come to rely on.
にもかかわらず the growth of renewable energy in 最近の years, almost all of the world’s energy, 84% as of 2020, runs on 化石 燃料s, 含むing oil and gas.
And with the ロシアの 発見 of an 概算の 511billion バーレル／樽s of oil and gas in the 南極の, the race for 黒人／ボイコット Gold is on once again, as nations across the world （人命などを）奪う，主張するing they alone own the land above the 化石 燃料 reserve, even though a historic 条約 妨げるs anyone from 接近ing it.?
But 専門家s have 警告するd that Russia and 中国?should not be 信用d and that the West せねばならない make 準備s to 妨げる them from getting their 手渡すs on it.
Russia’s 発見 underneath the 南極の is already starting to spook the West, with the 問題／発行する 存在 brought up at a Select 委員会 this week.?
An ice shelf on the Ross Sea, in Antarctica?
A 労働者 walks at an oil 精油所 位置を示すd on a 支店 of the Druzhba oil pipeline in Mozyr, Russia
While Junior 大臣 David Rutley told the scrutinising 委員会 that Russia has ‘繰り返して given 保証／確信s’ last week that it was only 行為／行うing science in the 地域, 専門家s lambasted the idea that 明言する／公表するs like 中国 or Russia could be 信用d.
Russia’s 侵略 of ウクライナ共和国, and how it 正当化するd it, is indicative of how it might 行為／法令／行動する in the 南極の given the 大規模な 量 of oil it 設立する.
‘I f you look at ウクライナ共和国, Russia is 明確に sending signals that it doesn’t care about international 法律, multilateralism, or 条約s. If you extrapolate that into what might happen in Antarctica, I'm sure that it raises many 疑問s and many eyebrows in the US, in the UK and the 残り／休憩（する） of Europe, because they might change the 支配するs of the game because they just don't agree with it,’ Dr. Carlos Solar, an 専門家 in Latin American 安全 told MailOnline.
‘Russia 存在 at war and 存在 so 決定的な to 直面する the West is what sends a signal to what might happen in [Antarctica]. They might use the same ウクライナ共和国 戦略 which was 簡単に: ‘This is ours.’
‘Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are discussing a new world order, led by anti-Western norms. That might lead to a new 全世界の governance. If they are going to start dictating multilateralism and 条約s, then they might 同様に lead on this’, he 追加するd.
‘If there is a 大規模な 退却／保養地 from Western-led 全世界の governance, then we will see a new 条約 for Antarctica which, given the 欠如（する） of 資源s, may 許す them to （人命などを）奪う，主張する the oil and gas in Antarctica.’
'Xi Jinping (pictured, 権利) and Vladimir Putin (pictured, left) are discussing a new world order, led by anti-Western norms', Solar said?
A 衛星 見解（をとる） of?Erebus 火山 on Ross Island, Antarctica
予測（する）s for how much oil 需要・要求する will grow in 2024 変化させる wildly, given the contrasting 見解（をとる）s on how quickly the world is 移行ing away from 化石 燃料s.
石油輸出国機構 推定する／予想するs another year of 比較して strong 需要・要求する growth of 2.25 million bpd, while the International Energy 機関 推定する／予想するs much slower growth of 1.22 million bpd.
By the lowest 見積（る）s, the reserves 設立する underneath the 南極の, if 適切に 抽出するd, would be enough to 燃料 the 惑星 for more than 500 years.
With such a large prize 存在 設立する in an area that is already ‘深く，強烈に contested’, as Dr. Christopher Sabatini, a 上級の 研究 Fellow at Chatham House put it, 緊張s in the South 大西洋 are bound to ゆらめく and 戦略の pieces of land, 同様に as 共同s, will be invaluable to 明言する／公表するs wanting to take 支配（する）／統制する of the oil.?
In the background to all of this is the 問題／発行する of whether anyone will be 許すd to 抽出する the oil in the first place.?
For nations that are 加盟国s to the 1959 大西洋 条約, in 交流 for agreeing to only use the 南極の for 科学の 研究, they are 認めるd a seat at the （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する to discuss how the 地域 may be used in the 未来.
ロシアの 軍の ship?Konstantin Olshansky
開始する Erebus, on Ross Island in Antarctica
Dr. Solar told MailOnline that 中国, in particular, has been 行為／行うing 科学の 実験（する）s and setting up new bases across the 南極の for this very 推論する／理由.
Russia was going the same 同様に, and both are ‘upping their game in the 南極の so that they're ready to give enough proof that they can （人命などを）奪う，主張する 主権，独立 over different areas of the 南極の.’
This isn’t 簡単に to その上の the 科学の understanding of the 地域, Solar told MailOnline. By getting a seat at the （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する, they will be able to dictate the 条件 of the 南極の 条約, which is 始める，決める to be reviewed in 2014.
‘They need to be ready for 2048 when the 条約 will be reviewed and 現在の their 信任状 and say: “This is the science that we're 行為／行うing in the 地域. We have a 発言する／表明する, we have something to say”.’
This opens the door for the oil underneath the 南極の to be 偉業／利用するd for the 利益 of no-one by Russia and 中国, 専門家s 警告するd. And given the 押し進める from both nations to 設立する a ‘new world order’ which put them on 最高の，を越す, as Solar put it, the West せねばならない be worried.
The UK and Argentina have been in a long-running 論争 over the （人命などを）奪う，主張する to the 南極の
Russia may try and muscle its way in to make a （人命などを）奪う，主張する to the oil underneath the 南極の, even going as far as to use 軍の 軍隊, Dr Sabatini 警告するd.?
But given its 最大の関心事 with ウクライナ共和国, ‘the capacity of Russia to really 主張する itself in that 地域 is very 限られた／立憲的な’, he 追加するd.
However, Putin’s anti-West 外交政策 goals means he may still try to enter the fray 簡単に to 混乱に陥れる／中断させる activity in the South 大西洋.
‘Putin is a master of throwing ガソリン on a 解雇する／砲火／射撃 that he really doesn't have the capacity to put out or 含む／封じ込める, but that's what he wants to do - （種を）蒔く disruption.’ Sabatini said.
中国, 一方／合間, has already been making moves to てこ入れ／借入資本 Latin America, having been given the 権利s to 設立する 組織／基盤／下部構造 in the nearby 海峡 of Magellan.
The 長，率いる of the US Southern 命令（する）, General Laura Richardson, said in 2022 that this closely followed 計画（する）s laid out in 中国’s Belt and Road 率先, a １０年間s-long 計画（する） that 許すs 中国 to 発揮する 経済的な 影響（力） across the world.
Coupled with Argentina’s 告示 this week that it would 許す the US to open a 軍の base in Ushuaia, 専門家s said they 推定する／予想するd 緊張s in the South 大西洋 to rise 意味ありげに.
Two 潜水艦s at the PLA 海軍の Museum in Qingdao, 中国's Shandong 州
‘追加する into the mix the 問題／発行する of oil, and it becomes a contested area which could be a real flashpoint’, Sabatini said.
If a flashpoint does 爆発する in the 地域, 専門家s said that the West would likely have to step in to help Argentina, which last?month 正式に 発表するd its 意向 to join 北大西洋条約機構, with the country’s defence 大臣 Luis Petri 会合 with the 圏’s 副 長官 general Mircea Geoan?.
Geoan? said at the time: ‘Argentina plays an important 役割 in Latin America, and I welcome today’s request to 調査する becoming a 北大西洋条約機構 partner. 北大西洋条約機構 作品 with a 範囲 of countries around the world to 促進する peace and 安定. Closer political and practical 協調 could 利益 us both.’
De spite not 存在 a 十分な member yet, Sabitini said that the US and the 残り／休憩（する） of the West would likely be willing to step in if any rogue 明言する／公表する 脅すs Argentina with 軍の 活動／戦闘.
‘Given Argentina's 願望（する） to become an associate member of 北大西洋条約機構, it could count on Western 軍の support.
‘The US is not about to 許す a rediscovered 同盟（する） to be strong 武装した by countries that want to brazenly 軍隊 their way into the Western 半球.’
For its part, the UK is ‘very 井戸／弁護士席 用意が出来ている 軍事的に’ for any 可能性のある 活動／戦闘 in the South 大西洋, Solar says, given the 激しい RAF and Army presence on the Falkland Islands
RAF 開始する Pleasant, home to up to 2,000 British 軍隊／機動隊s, 持つ／拘留する dozens of 闘士，戦闘機 計画（する）s and ヘリコプターs that are ready to attack or defend at a moment's notice.?
Solar told MailOnline that the 激しい British 軍の presence ‘shows a lot of muscle is in the 地域.’
But there’s something that gives 中国 and Russia a surprising 辛勝する／優位 over the 残り／休憩（する） of the world - their 独裁的な 政権s.?
僕主主義s 普通は have to switch leaders every few years, meaning that 外交政策 goals can easily change from 行政 to 行政.
But 独裁的な 明言する／公表するs can 簡単に ‘lay 支援する and 企て，努力，提案 their time’, Solar said.
‘So for the West, 僕主主義 might even play against them because there will be a lot of changes in 外交政策.
‘With 中国 and Russia not 存在 僕主主義s, they can wait for Milei to go away and then quickly go 支援する and 得る，とらえる their 利益／興味 in Argentina when a 政府 more fond of the East comes 支援する.’
Given the 井戸／弁護士席-設立するd energy 開発／利用 組織／基盤／下部構造 in both 中国 and Russia, it would be 比較して 平易な for the m to start 抽出するing oil underneath the 南極の shelf, Solar said.
‘[Russia and 中国] have 大規模な energy 産業s, so it wouldn't be that hard for them to start 偉業／利用するing Antarctica if the 支配するs of the system were to change and if they were to dictate the new 支配するs.
‘No one really has a 権利 to Antarctica, it's only the 多国間の 条約 that is 持つ／拘留するing together peace in Antarctica. So it wouldn't be that hard to 現実に shake and break that multilateralism.’
A Chinese People's 解放 海軍 ship
ロシアの 軍艦 BSF Tsezar Kunikov 158 sails through the Bosphorus 海峡 off the coast of the city of Istanbul on her way to the 黒人／ボイコット Sea
The most important player in the 地域 is Argentina, the closest 君主 nation to the oil field.?
Thanks to Argentina’s 排除的 経済的な 権利s around its land 国境s, it 支配（する）／統制するs everything between itself and the Falklands.
As a result, ‘they are the only ones who can authorise sea and 空気／公表する 輸送（する） in that patch o f the ocean’, によれば Solar.?
This leaves the 可能性のある for Argentina to 増加する its own 保護するd zone open, ‘which might even 封鎖する the whole of the South 大西洋, depending on how much Argentina is willing to 拡大する its 海上の 保護するd zone’, Solar 追加するd.?
It has fought with the UK over the 権利 to?（人命などを）奪う，主張する land in the South 大西洋, and its firebrand leader Javier Milei has, as recently as this week, 布告するd that the Falkland Islands, the Malvinas to the Argentinians, are the rightful 所有物／資産／財産 of his nation.
It also 論争d that the UK is the rightful 支えるもの／所有者 of the slice of 領土 that the half a 一兆 バーレル／樽s of oil were 設立する, as does Chile.??
‘There's a long historical 緊張 between the UK and Argentina over the South 大西洋 and the Falklands’, Sabatini said.
But the academic believe Milei’s 最新の diatribe against the UK and its 役割 in the Falklands was 簡単に strongman posturing to 上げる his political position at home.?
‘[Milei] has to say the Falklands are Argentine. That's baked into Argentina's 国家の 身元. To say さもなければ would be political 自殺.’
In reality, the Chatham House fellow said, Milei is much more likely to want to 提携させる himself with the West.
‘[Milei] is a self professed fan of Margaret Thatcher, and is not willing to take unnecessary fights with Western 力／強力にするs. He's much more 提携させるd with the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs, the UK and Europe, and is not likely to engage in the sort of sabre 動揺させるing that the previous 政府 did over 問題／発行するs of the South 大西洋.’
Argentina is ありそうもない to go for the oil on its own, however, given its middling energy 生産／産物 capacity, Sabatini said, 追加するing that this could 現実に lead to its 関係 with the UK 存在 傷をいやす／和解させるd.
‘It's going to need Western 同盟s, and there could be an 適切な時期 here for 共同 between the British and Argentina.’
And it is 高度に ありそうもない to work with ロシアの or Chinese oil companies, Sabatini 追加するd, given Milei's ‘zealously’ anti-共産主義者 姿勢.?
But he may have to, whether he wants to or not, given the 明言する／公表する of the Argentine economy.
Milei’s 前任者, Alberto Fern?ndez, took a total of $18billion in 貸付金s from 中国 to help 支払う／賃金 off an enormous $43billion 負債 to the 国際通貨基金 that it took on in 2018 after the Peso, Argentina’s central 通貨, 平価を切り下げるd by 11% against the US dollar in いっそう少なく than a week.
Sabatini said that 中国, which has long had an 積極的な 姿勢 on 負債s it is 借りがあるd, may use this vulnerability to its advantage.
‘[Milei] really is on a very short 経済的な lead 権利 now’, he 警告するd.
