Jihadists and this 災害 for us all

Last August, two months before her return to Pakistan from 追放する, Benazir Bhutto explained the essence of Pakistani politics.

"There are two fault lines," she said. "One is 独裁政治 versus 僕主主義. The other is moderation versus extremism."

These fault lines converged lethally on her on Thursday when she was 殺人d by Islamic 極端論者s while （選挙などの）運動をするing to 回復する 僕主主義 to her country.

Her death will 急落（する），激減（する） her already troubled country into a 長引かせるd period of murderous 大混乱 from which only Islamist fanatics can 伸び（る）.

It is ありそうもない that Al Qaeda and their Islamist 支持者s would ever assume total 支配（する）／統制する of a 核の-武装した Pakistan - the 判決，裁定 generals will not willingly give up their 武器s. But in the maelstrom that follows Bhutto's 暗殺 the Islamists will be 解放する／自由な to 繁栄する in 広大な tracts of the country.

抱擁する areas will become a 巨大（な） training （軍の）野営地，陣営 for the sort of Anglo-Pakistani jihadists who struck in London in July 2005. Entire 地域s in the north west are already violent badlands 占領するd by 極端論者s, which the 政府 can only enter with thousands of 兵士s - and these badlands are now likely to 拡大する massively.

It was 完全に in the 利益／興味s of 極端論者s to kill Bhutto. Even if Al Qaeda itself did not 殺人 her, one of its 広報担当者 has called the Asia Times newspaper （人命などを）奪う，主張するing that the 殺し屋s were from the 根本主義 Lashkar-i- Jhangvi group, 事実上の／代理 under Al Qaeda's orders.

設立するd in 1996, this group has, in the past, 爆弾d churches in Pakistan and killed 西部の人／西洋人s. It was also 責任がある the 誘拐する and 殺人 of the U.S. 新聞記者／雑誌記者 Daniel Pearl.

Islamist fanatics have long had Bhutto in their sights because she was a westernised woman with rapacious political ambitions -

even her own mother believes that she was 責任がある the 殺人 of her brother, Mur taza, once a 競争相手 for leadership of the Pakistani People's Party, of which she made herself life 大統領，／社長.

Bhutto's ineptitude and indolence in high office, coupled with stories of 汚職 and greed, only fuelled the 決意 of Islamists to do anything to kill her.

An associate of Ramzi Yousef, the テロリスト principally 責任がある the 1993 World 貿易（する） Centre 爆破, 解任するd under 尋問 that Yousef 率直に sought to "unseat" the then Pakistani 首相.

In the 中央の-1990s, 連邦検察局 盗聴 of a 重要な Al Qaeda U.S. operative 記録，記録的な／記録するd conversations about "Khanazir Bhutto" (Bhutto the pig) and the 観察: "Men are 廃虚d if they are to obey women. 賞賛する to God."

Al Qaeda's 願望（する） to kill her went into overdrive this autumn when, as part of a コンビナート／複合体 一連の 取引，協定s with the Americans who saw her as integral to 回復するing 僕主主義, she 約束d, if she won 力／強力にする, to 許す U.S. 軍隊s to operate in the wild and lawless areas of Pakistan, where Osama 貯蔵所 Laden lurks and where Al Qaeda has been 再編成するing.

But it was not only Al Qaeda who 手配中の，お尋ね者 to see her off. She made a その上の 約束 to the U.S. which infuriated 力／強力にする 仲買人s within Pakistan's 軍の and 知能 網状組織s and which may have 加速するd her 暗殺.

She 公約するd to 許す American 知能 スパイ／執行官s 接近 to AQ

旅宿泊所, the 科学の father of the world's first Islamic 核の 爆弾. に引き続いて a Western 激しい抗議 about his 役割 in selling 原子の secrets to Iran and other countries, AQ 旅宿泊所 恐らく lives under 自宅監禁 in Islamabad.

The prospect of 旅宿泊所's nefarious links to Pakistan's powerful 武装した 軍隊s and の間の-Service 知能 機関 存在 明らかにする／漏らすd might have been enough for the latter to 許す the Islamist 爆撃機-暗殺者 to 侵入する Bhutto's 安全 非常線，警戒線.

Incredibly, にもかかわらず the first attack on her in October, which killed 140 people but left Bhutto 無事の, 安全 was ne ver 強化するd. 大統領 Musharraf determinedly 拒絶するd her 需要・要求するs to 輸入する foreign 護衛s.

The truth is that the 暗殺 is a 災害, and not 簡単に because of the 象徴的な significance she had as the most highprofile 女性（の） 政治家，政治屋 in the イスラム教徒 world.

It 完全に uproots Western 戦略 on Pakistan, the world's second most populous Islamic country, which was based on a smooth 移行 from the eight-year 独裁政治 of Musharraf to a 僕主主義 in which he would be （太陽，月の）食／失墜d or marginalised by Bhutto as a more charismatic 首相.

Since 9/11, the West's main problems in Afghanistan and Pakistan have stemmed from supporting Musharraf, a duplicitous 軍の 独裁者 who （人命などを）奪う，主張するd to be an 同盟（する） in the "war on terror."

This was only ever partly true since, for １０年間s, elements in the Pakistani 知能 apparatus under his 命令（する） have

been covertly sponsoring テロリストs in 隣人ing Afghanistan and Kashmir. Musharraf's usefulness to the West finally 満了する／死ぬd earlier this year when he 片側だけに struck 取引，協定s with the Waziri 部族の leaders who are 保護するing 貯蔵所 Laden.

These 取引s, 表面上は designed to keep a lid on テロリスト 極端論者s, in fact enabled Al Qaeda to 繁栄する and 拡大する its 操作／手術s into hitherto 平和的な parts of the 部族の areas such as the Swat valley.

最近の 報告（する）／憶測s 示唆する that the Pakistani 軍の has embezzled millions from the 広大な sums the U.S. has にわか雨d on the war on terror.

平等に, Musharraf has done nothing to 中和する／阻止する the Saudi-財政／金融d madrassas in Pakistan which train so many of the 謀反のs fighting Nato 軍隊s in 隣人ing Afghanistan.

Musharraf's gut instinct now will be to 偉業／利用する the 暴動ing （海，煙などが）飲み込むing Pakistan by 割れ目ing 負かす／撃墜する and 延期するing next month's 選挙s. He believes that only his own 軍の caste can 効果的に 治める／統治する his nation and will do all he can to 持つ／拘留する on to 力／強力にする.

S o what can the West do now to stop him and the Islamists 利益ing from the 殺人 of Bhutto? First we should 主張する - using our かなりの 財政上の muscle ーに関して／ーの点でs of 援助（する） and 貿易（する） - that it is the 支配する of a fullscale 調査, with 法廷の 専門家s drawn from a wide 範囲 of countries, who will be 有能な of seeing through the mess that the Pakistani police left at the 罪，犯罪 scene, a mess that may have been 審議する／熟考する.

Second, no 事柄 how 血まみれの the 暴動s that are likely continue in the next few days, the West should make it （疑いを）晴らす to Musharraf that there should be no 重要な 延期 of the 選挙s or 課税 of 戦争の 法律.

Eight years of his 軍の 独裁政治 has built up 怒り／怒る and 憤慨 in Pakistan to 圧力- cooker 割合s, and only the chance to 表明する some political choice through the 投票（する） box can 緩和する that 圧力.

にもかかわらず the terrible blow of her death, Bhutto's Pakistani People's Party should choose a 後継者 who 誓約（する）s to fight on in an 選挙. Since the leader of the イスラム教徒 League 野党, Nawaz Sharif, has said he will ボイコット（する） the 選挙s, the goal is open for whoever Bhutto's 後継者 happens to be. And crucially he - for it will be a he - can count on a 大規模な sympathy 投票（する） accruing to his 殉教者d 前任者.

What the West cannot afford to do, is to let Pakistan descend into the 大混乱 of a country such as Somalia. We need to let its 有能な and industrious middleclasses know that we are on their 味方する.

We need to tell whoever 現れるs the 勝利者 in any 選挙 that our 援助 is 次第で変わる／派遣部隊 upon the 創造 of a decent education system, an end to 汚職 and 甚だしい／１２ダース 不平等 - 同様に as the ruthless 追跡 of Islamist jihadists in the 部族の lands they roam at will.

Only then will we have a Pakistan that the West and most Pakistanis can live with.

Michael Burleigh's 血 and 激怒（する）: A Cultural History of テロ行為 will be pu blished by Harper Collins in February.