End the lockdown 'madness': 70-strong group of Tory MPs 需要・要求する Covid 抑制（する）s are gone ALTOGETHER by the summer after 大臣s and SAGE 専門家s 誘発する fury by 警告 all OVER-50s must get ワクチンs before '重要な' 緩和

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Tories today 需要・要求するd Boris Johnson 解除するs coronavirus 制限s altogether by the summer まっただ中に fury over the 政府's 'goalpost 転換ing' on lockdown.

The PM is 直面するing an angry （激しい）反発 and （人命などを）奪う，主張するs he is 存在 'beaten up by scientists' after?大臣s and SAGE 専門家s 示唆するd all over-50s should get ワクチンs before any '重要な' 緩和.

There is alarm that the 妨げる／法廷，弁護士業 for 許すing the economy to get 支援する up and running is 存在 解除するd, with 悲惨な 警告s about the 脅し of mutant coronavirus 追加するd to 関心s about the 緊張する on the NHS.? ?

ワクチンs 大臣 Nadhim Zahawi appeared to 示す this morning that the 政府 is looking at the 最高の，を越す nine 危険 部類s - around 32million people - as the 誘発する／引き起こす point for a 普及した downgrading of 対策. So far the PM has only said that he will 明かす a 大勝する 地図／計画する out of lockdown on February 22, after the first four most 攻撃を受けやすい groups have been covered.?

Mr Zahawi 辞退するd to give a date for when the nine 部類s in 段階 one of the rollout will be 完全にする - although MailOnline 見積（る）s 示唆する it could be 早期に April.?

一方／合間, SAGE member Professor Andrew Hayward gave a 類似の message as he said there could be a '重要な return to normality' after all over-50s are vaccinated. 'Once the most 攻撃を受けやすい people, 特に those over 50 and those with chronic illnesses, are vaccinated then yes I think we can see a 重要な return to normality,' he said.

However, Prof Hayward said he still hoped the UK will be 'more or いっそう少なく 支援する to normal for the summer'.

Tory MPs 警告するd it would be 'madness' if M r Johnson 単に started to open schools on March 8 - which he has identified as the earliest possible timeframe for any 緩和. 示す Harper, 議長，司会を務める of the lockdown-sceptic CRG 封鎖する, said once the 最高の，を越す nine groups are vaccinated 制限s should be 解除するd altogether.??

And former 閣僚 大臣 Iain Duncan Smith told MailOnline: 'The trouble is they are now 存在 beaten up by the scientists. The scientists are giving them all sorts of new 推論する／理由s why you can't 打ち明ける.

'Of course for the scientists it doesn't make any difference really because they get paid anyway.'?

There are （人命などを）奪う，主張するs that （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 Rishi Sunak is again 主要な calls within 閣僚 for lockdown to be 緩和するd as 早期に as possible - in contrast to the more 用心深い トン 可決する・採択するd by Mr Johnson recently.?

There was more proof that Britain has passed the 頂点（に達する） of the second wave today as daily deaths and 事例／患者s continued to 落ちる and 圧力 on 集中的な care 部隊s finally started to 緩和する.

Department of Health 公式の／役人s 記録，記録的な／記録するd another 915 Covid 犠牲者s and 20,634 肯定的な 実験（する）s ― 負かす／撃墜する by more than a ４半期/4分の1 week-on-week.

Separate Public Health England 人物／姿／数字s showed all but three 地元の 当局 saw coronavirus 感染s 減少（する） last week and 事例／患者s in care homes fell by a third. The 最新の 実験（する） and Trace 報告（する）／憶測 today also （人命などを）奪う，主張するd 肯定的な 実験（する）s 急落（する），激減（する）d by 41 per cent in the last fortnight, in another 調印する the 危機 is 堅固に in 退却／保養地.

一方／合間, NHS England 統計（学） showed there were 5,283 患者s in ICUs across the country on the last day of January, 負かす／撃墜する わずかに on the previous week when there were 5,446 beds in use. It's the first time ICU capacity has 緩和するd since the 高度に-感染性の Kent Covid variant started to spiral out of 支配（する）／統制する in December.

All 重要な metrics now indicat e the darkest days of the winter 危機 are behind us, with the number of Covid hospital 患者s in general beds dropping to its lowest level for a month and in every 地域. And in another 微光 of hope, the mammoth ワクチン roll-out is continuing to 選ぶ up pace with almost 475,000 jabs dished out yesterday. And 500,000 攻撃を受けやすい Britons have now had both doses.??

圧力 is growing on Boris Johnson (pictured this morning) to commit to a major 緩和 of the draconian 対策 within weeks, after the UK's rollout of jabs 攻撃する，衝突する the milestone of 10million people covered

ワクチンs 大臣 Nadhim Zaha wi (left) appeared to 示す this morning that the 政府 is looking at the 最高の，を越す nine 危険 部類s - around 32million people - as the 誘発する／引き起こす point for a 普及した downgrading of 対策. But there are （人命などを）奪う，主張するs Rishi Sunak (権利) is の中で the Tories growing 関心d about 転換ing goalposts

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There are still 35,000 患者s in hospital with Covid ― far higher than the 20,000 at the 頂点（に達する） last spring

As the pandemic 大混乱 continue to 激怒（する） today:?

• むちの跡s is planning to get schools 支援する from February 22, the same date as Scotland and weeks before it is 予定 to happen in England;
• No10 開始する，打ち上げるd the world's first 裁判，公判 into whether mixing and matching Covid ワクチンs can 高める 保護;?
• 大臣s have been slammed over 延期するs to the '検疫 hotels' 計画（する）s with Matt Hancock not now 推定する／予想するd to give the 詳細（に述べる）s until next week;??
• Sir Keir Starmer was 軍隊d to 収容する／認める he was wrong to 否定する he had called for the UK to remain part of the European 薬／医学's 機関;
• Britons went on to their doorsteps and balconies to clap in honour of the late Captain Sir Tom Moore.?

Asked on Today whether the 政府 was 転換ing the goalposts on when lockdown can 緩和する, Mr Zahawi said: 'I think you've got to make sure your ワクチン接種 programme has 保護するd the 最高の，を越す nine 部類s in 段階 one...'?

He 繰り返し言うd that the PM will 始める，決める out a roadmap and the 意向 is for 制限s to 緩和する '徐々に' from March 8, starting with schools.?

Mr Zahawi 拒絶する／低下するd to give a date for when the first nine groups in the 優先 名簿（に載せる）／表（にあげる） will have received their ワクチン, but said people could 'do the maths'.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast, Nadhim Zahawi said: 'We will 始める，決める out our 的 (for vaccinating groups 5-9) after we have 攻撃する，衝突する our February 15 的.

'But you can do the maths. We did 600,000 in a 選び出す／独身 day ? the （軍隊などの）展開，配備 組織／基盤／下部構造 that we've built can do as much ワクチンs as we get 供給（する）, so the 限界ing factor will be ワクチン 供給（する）.

'You can see that in the next 10 or so days, we've got to do another almost touching five million and so if we keep that 率 up we will very quickly go 負かす／撃墜する the 名簿（に載せる）／表（にあげる） of the 最高の，を越す nine.'

圧力（をかける）d on whether that meant it would take another 35 days from February 15 to have jabbed all 31 million people in the first nine cohorts, Mr Zahawi replied: 'That assumes the 供給（する）, so I don't want to commit to a date without going through it with a very 罰金 toothcomb with the whole team, because our 限界ing factor is the 供給（する） of ワクチンs 最終的に.

'With any 製造業の 過程, 特に one that is new, there are challenges around that, as we've seen in Europe and as we saw in the 早期に days in the UK 同様に.'

Covid 回復 Group (CRG) chairman 示す Harper argued that once the 最高の，を越す nine 優先 groups had been vaccinated, that should be the moment 制限 s are 解除するd altogether.

'Once you've done the 最高の，を越す nine groups ? that's 99 per cent of deaths and over 80 per cent of hospitalisations ? that's the point at which you can get rid of 制限s 完全に,' he told the World At One.

'I think what people are worried about is you then keep 審理，公聴会 other things creeping into the argument about the 率 of 感染 and other things keep 存在 thrown into the 審議 which sounds like it's changing the goal 地位，任命する.

'I think we should keep 焦点（を合わせる）d on 保護するing the 攻撃を受けやすい, 減ずるing deaths and hospitalisations and the 圧力 on the health service ? and those are the two things I think that need to 運動 開始 up.'

Encouraging 人物／姿／数字s show the number of 肯定的な 実験（する）s 記録，記録的な／記録するd in English care homes dropped by more than a third last week, 落ちるing from 504 to 321. This, 連合させるd with th e fact every 適格の care home 居住（者） has now been vaccinated, 示唆する 公式の／役人s are finally getting a 支配する on the resurgence of the ウイルス in the 部門

最新の NHS England data published today showed there were 5,283 患者s in ICUs across the country on the last day of January, 負かす／撃墜する わずかに on the previous week, when there were 5,446 beds in use. It is 重要な because it 示すs the first time ICU capacity has 緩和するd since the 高度に-感染性の Kent Covid variant started to spiral out of 支配（する）／統制する in December

Mr Duncan Smith told MailOnline that Mr Sunak was 'not the only one' worried about goalposts 転換ing on lockdown.

'For all those on low incomes stuck in homes that are やめる small with kids it's a nightmare. They are not 収入 anything, large number of them have not been able to b e furloughed because their companies have just gone under, and they were doing a lot of casual work.

'We have got to take 在庫／株 and get the balance 権利 again. We have now got these ワクチンs, they are 論証するing that not only do they 保護する against Covid, they 保護する against 伝達／伝染.'

He said the 政府 was 'within an エース' of 保護するing the most 攻撃を受けやすい groups and it would be 'madness' only to open schools on March 8. 'We cannot 脅す ourselves into no activity. We need the economy to move for lots of 推論する／理由s, not just for money, for wellbeing, for mental health.'?

A 支持者 of Mr Sunak told the Telegraph: 'Rishi is 関心d that the scientists have been moving the goalposts in 最近の weeks.?It's no longer just about hospitalisations and 保護するing the NHS but 事例／患者s and 事例／患者 numbers.'

They said Mr Sunak was?毅然とした this third 国家の squeeze must be the final lockdown and 先触れ（する）d it a 'fat lady sings moment' - the point at which Britain draws a line under a cycle of lockdowns for good.

財務省 sources played 負かす／撃墜する the 報告（する）／憶測s this morning, 主張するing those are 'not things he has said'.?

事例／患者s and deaths are continuing to 落ちる as the UK 記録，記録的な／記録するd another 19,202 感染s and 1,322 fatalities yesterday, 負かす／撃墜する 25 per cent week-on-week. Prof Chris Whitty 確認するd that the country is now past the 最新の 頂点（に達する）.

Paul Hunter, professor of 薬／医学 at the University of East Anglia, said the 率 of the 落ちる in Covid-19 事例／患者s made him 楽観的な that 制限s on 世帯s mixing could be 解除するd as soon as next month and that pupils could be 支援する to school before the 総理大臣's March 8 的 date.

He told BBC 無線で通信する 4's World At One: 'I think there could 井戸／弁護士席 be a 事例／患者 for 開始 schools sooner ? I 特に think schools for children under 11 years of age, where the 証拠 that they 与える／捧げる to the spread of the 疫病／流行性の in the wider 全住民 is a lot lower.

'I would certainly hope to see schools, and 特に junior schools, 開始 比較して soon.'

Asked about when people could start to see friends and family, Prof Hunter replied: '本人自身で I believe we should be able to start doing that probably not long after (schools 再開する) ? if I had to bet on a time, I'd say some time in March certainly.'

On 存在 許すd 支援する into restaurants, he 追加するd: 'I think that will be probably around the same time, maybe April. But again, it just depends what happens with the 疫病／流行性の between now and then.'??

In a 声明 to the ありふれたs this afternoon, Mr Zahawi sounded a 肯定的な トン 説 'our nation is getting safer every day' thanks to the success of the ワクチン接種 programme.

'I am pleased to 知らせる the House that we have now vaccinated almost nine in 10 over-80s in the UK, almost nine in 10 over-75s, and over half of people in their 70s,' he said.

'We've also visited every 適格の care home possible with older 居住（者）s in England and have 申し込む／申し出d ワクチン接種s to all their 居住（者）s and staff.

'This means we are 現在／一般に on 跡をつける to 会合，会う our 的 of 申し込む／申し出ing a ワクチン to the four most 攻撃を受けやすい groups by 中央の-February.'?

He said new ワクチン 場所／位置s 存在 opened will enable the most 攻撃を受けやすい to be given their jabs 'even quicker'.?

But in a word of 警告を与える about the 脅し 提起する／ポーズをとるd by mutant 緊張するs, Mr Zahawi said?'no one is really 安全な until the whole world is 安全な'.

He told MPs that he was 'pleased' by 証拠 about the 有効性 of the Oxford/AstraZeneca ワクチン in stopping 伝達／伝染, 追加するing: 'This is, of course, really 広大な／多数の／重要な news for us all.

'But we will not 残り／休憩（する） on our laurels ? no one is really 安全な until the whole world is 安全な.

'Our 科学の 開拓するs will keep innovating so we can help the whole world in our 集団の／共同の fight against this ウイルス.'?

In the 投票 for MailOnline 35 per cent said leaving the EU had been useful for the 大規模な 国家の 成果／努力, compared to 20 per cent who thought it had been a hindrance

At a No10 圧力（をかける） 要点説明 last night Mr Johnson trumpeted the country's ワクチン接種 運動 for passing the monumental 10million-jab milestone.

Thanking the medics behind the rollout, the 総理大臣 said: 'It is thanks to their 成果／努力 ― the most colossal in the history of our 国家の Health Service ― that we have today passed the milestone.'?

Yet Prof Whitty 警告するd that the NHS will stay under 緊張する until the six remaining 優先 groups, which?含む everyone over 50, are given their first dose.?

He told the 要点説明: 'The number of people in hospital with Covid has now gone 負かす／撃墜する from its 頂点（に達する）, やめる noticeably.

'But as the 総理大臣 said, there are still a very large number of people in hospital, and more people than there were in the first 頂点（に達する） in April last year.?So this is still a very major problem, but it is one that is 長，率いるing the 権利 way.'?

There are still 35,000 患者s in hospital with Covid ― far higher than the 20,000 at the 頂点（に達する） last spring.?

Mr Johnson 列／漕ぐ／騒動d in behind his 最高の，を越す 医療の 専門家 and 警告するd that the level of 感染 is still 'forbiddingly high' and that it is too soon to relax 現在の 制限s.?

The 総理大臣 約束d that he will 始める，決める out a '大勝する 地図／計画する' out of lockdown on February 22, when he said scientists will have a better idea of how 効果的な the ワクチンs are.?

閣僚 '強硬派s' such as Mr Sunak have 報道によれば 押し進めるd for looser lockdown 抑制（する）s at times to 減ずる the 経済的な fallout of the health 危機.?

An 前例のない 量 of 平時（の） public spending to mitigate the 影響s of lockdown - such as furlough and bailouts - have 急落（する），激減（する）d the nation's 財政／金融s 深い into the red, with 政府 borrowing reaching?£270.8bn this 財政上の year.?

At next month's 予算 the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 will 始める，決める out his 計画（する） to start patching up the blackhole, which will likely see 税金 rises, although the Tory manifesto 支配するd out 引き上げ（る）s to 付加価値税, 国家の 保険 and 所得税.??

Mr Sunak's 財務省 簡潔な／要約する, which makes him hyperaware of the havoc 存在 wreaked on the economy, has at times put him at 半端物s with 閣僚 'doves' preoccupied with 運動ing 負かす／撃墜する 事例／患者s.?

政府 分裂（する）s 公然と surfaced last night when 退役軍人s 大臣 Johnny Mercer 'liked' a tweet telling the （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長 to 'get 支援する in his box'.

The （ドイツなどの）首相／（大学の）学長's bullishness to 打ち明ける parts of the economy when possible is believed to be 支援するd by the?商売／仕事 and 輸送（する） departments, which are also 報道によれば worried the 基準 for relaxing 制限s is 存在 upped.??

Some Tory MPs have also 表明するd 関心 over the scientists' 用心深い approach and are agitating for looser 対策, 特に to 再開する schools.?

Mr Johnson last week said children would not go 支援する to classes by March 8 at the earliest.??

議長，司会を務める of the powerful 1922 group of 保守的な backbenchers Sir Graham Brady 勧めるd the PM to 改訂する this date in light of new ワクチン data.

The 上級の Tory MP pointed to a 熟考する／考慮する this week that 設立する just a 選び出す／独身 発射 of the Oxford-AstraZeneca ワクチン had a '相当な' 衝撃 on 抑制（する）ing 伝達／伝染.?

Oxford 研究員s, who are making their jab with 製薬の 会社／堅い AstraZeneca?and 配達するing more than a million of doses per week to the UK, 確認するd that 裁判，公判s 示唆するd the jab would stop most people from passing on the ウイルス.?

But modelling produced by SAGE members from Warwick University 予報するd that more than 150,000 more people could die in 2021 if lockdown 支配するs were 解除するd in March or April and ワクチンs did not stop people from spreading the ウイルス.?

解除するing lockdown after vaccinating people with jabs that don't stop the spread, the Warwick 専門家s 警告するd, would lead to 'an uncontrolled wave of 感染 in which only those 首尾よく immunised will escape.'?

And even doing so with the Oxford ワクチン rolled out to millions of people could still lead to a spike of 1,500 deaths per day if lockdown was 解除するd in February in 交流 for the 支配する of six, or 2,000 per day if lockdown ends 完全に in July.?

Dr Paul Hunter, a scientist at the University of East Anglia who was not 伴う／関わるd with the 研究, said social distancing could have to stay for another year in 2022 before it would be 安全な to return to normal.?

Will April 7 be the day Britain vaccinates its way out of lockdown? UK is on course to finish 注入するing all over-50s on that day ? but it could be much SOONER and there are ALREADY hints that Covid ワクチン is working in 年輩の?

Britain is on course to vaccinate all over-50s by April 7 at the 現在の 率 of ワクチン接種, MailOnline 見積（る）s 明らかにする／漏らす as 審議 激怒（する）s through 政府 about when lockdown can be 解除するd.

The 保護 申し込む／申し出d by one dose of coronavirus ワクチン takes two to three weeks to kick in, the 最新の 証拠 示唆するs, meaning the UK would be on 跡をつける for 対策 to be 解除するd at the end of April after 大臣s, Chris Whitty and and SAGE scientists signalled that they want all over-50s to be 申し込む／申し出d an 注射 before society 再開するs.

However, if the UK ワクチン 運動 加速するs from last week's daily 普通の／平均（する） of 345,000 people per day and is able to 支える its 最大限 率 of 600,000 doses a day, then the 的 could be 攻撃する，衝突する by 中央の-March.

Anti-lockdown Tory MPs are 押し進めるing for 対策 to be 解放（する）d sooner, when the 15million most 攻撃を受けやすい people are vaccinated by 中央の-February. ワクチン 大臣 Nadhim Zahawi today said the NHS is on 跡をつける to 攻撃する，衝突する this 的 and （人命などを）奪う，主張するd that nine out of 10 over-75s have already been vaccinated.

専門家s 見積（る） that the 影響s of 集まり ワクチン接種 could start to show through in 落ちるing numbers of people 存在 認める to hospital in 中央の-February, and then 意味ありげに より小数の people dying from March. They said there would also be an 衝撃 on 感染s, perhaps sooner, but this will be いっそう少なく noticeable.?

One 研究員, 物陰／風下d University's Professor Daniel Howdon, said there appears to already have been だいたい 25 per cent 拒絶する／低下するs in death 率s の中で over-80s, although it is not yet （疑いを）晴らす whether this is a result of ワクチン接種.

But modelling 手渡すd to SAGE in January 予報するd that 緩和 制限s from 中央の-February will 原因（となる） a third wave of coronavirus that will 頂点（に達する） at more than 1,000 deaths a day.

However, while?the rollout is 推定する／予想するd to 速度(を上げる） up, there is still a 'bumpy' 供給（する） chain and 大臣s 主張する 'our 限界ing factor remains 供給（する）', which Mr Zahawi said today was 'becoming more stable'. Other 障壁s to 十分な 速度(を上げる） ワクチン接種 may be the fact that only some GP 外科s are working on Sundays, and people will start to need second doses from 早期に March, which will 限界 the numbers of unique people who can be reached.

At least one more ワクチン should also come into use in March ? Moderna's ? with the 可能性 of Johnson & Johnson and Novavax jabs also getting 是認 before then.?

At a 率 of 345,000 first doses per day ? the 現在の 普通の／平均（する） ? it will take until February 17 to vaccinate all of the 最高の，を越す four 優先 groups, and then the remaining 17million over-50s and at-危険 people could be reached in 49 days, or seven weeks, by April 7. At an 普通の／平均（する） 率 of 600,000 per day from today onwards ? something the NHS has shown itself to be 有能な of, but which would 要求する a lot of things to go 権利 such as constant 供給（する）s, perfect organisation and even faster 率s as people start to need second doses from 中央の-March ? the first four groups could be done by Februayr 11 and all over-50s by March 12

分析 株d on Twitter by Professor Daniel Howdon, a health 経済学者 at the University of 物陰／風下d, 示唆するd there appears to already have been だいたい 25 per cent 拒絶する／低下するs in death 率s の中で over-80s, although it is not yet （疑いを）晴らす whether this is a result of ワクチン接種. This graph shows how the death 率 の中で 85 to 89-year-old people started 拒絶する／低下するing in January even when the 突発／発生 was around its 頂点（に達する）, which he said could be linked to ワクチン ニュース報道

The Covid-19 Actuaries 返答 Group, an organisation of volunteer 専門家s, said in January that the 影響s of the UK's 集まり ワクチン rollout would start to be seen in 落ちるing hospital admissions and deaths from 中央の-February, and then in 減ずるd death 率s from March. There would also be a 減少（する） in 感染 率s but this will be いっそう少なく noticeable. The 研究 was produced before the ワクチン programme 攻撃する，衝突する its c urrent 速度(を上げる）, on January 11

University of Warwick 研究 published in January, before the 現在の ワクチン接種 data became 利用できる, 示唆するd that if a ワクチン could 妨げる 65% of 伝達／伝染, as Oxford now says its ワクチン does, the country's death 率 could be kept to the low hundreds per day or より小数の from late March onwards if the 支配する of six is kept in place. The model is based on a large 大多数 of the 全住民 having a ワクチン with that level of 有効性

The 現在の 率 of the NHS's ワクチン接種 programme shows it is on 的 to 攻撃する，衝突する its 的 of 申し込む／申し出ing jabs to the 15million most 攻撃を受けやすい people by 中央の-February. Last week's 率 means it needs just two more weeks to get there.

公式の／役人s say they will '申し込む／申し出' the ワクチン to everyone rather than say they will 首尾よく give it to them, because some are likely to 辞退する to have the jab and others won't be able to have it for 医療の 推論する／理由s.

The 15m people 含む everyone over the age of 70 同様に as NHS and social care 労働者s, and those with serious long-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 health 条件s tha t put them at a high 危険 of dying if they catch Covid-19.

Although they are the number one 優先 for the 政府, there are now 関心s that vaccinating them alone will not be enough to end the 残虐な 国家の lockdown.?

There are 17million people over the age of 50 who （不足などを）補う 優先 groups four to nine and who will need to be reached once the 最高の，を越す four 優先 groups have been done.

At a 率 of 345,000 first doses per day ? last week's 普通の／平均（する） ? this would take 49 days, or seven weeks. From February 17 that would mean they could all be reached by April 7.

At an 普通の／平均（する） 率 of 600,000 per day from today onwards ? something the NHS has shown itself to be 有能な of, but which would 要求する a lot of things to go 権利 such as constant 供給（する）s, perfect organisation and even faster 率s as people start to need second doses from 中央の-March ? the first four groups could be done by February 11.

Then it would take just 29 days to reach the 17million 優れた over-50s and high-危険 people; four weeks and a day, ending on March 12.

After the most at-危険 groups have been vaccinated, the 政府 計画（する）s to 申し込む／申し出 jabs to everyone 老年の 18 and over in the UK. There will be around 21million of them left by this point, によれば the JCVI.

At the 現実主義の 345,000-per-day 率 this could be 達成するd in 61 days ? from April 7 this would take until June 7.

At the hyper-急速な／放蕩な 600,000 per day ? which would likely be impossible by this point because millions of people would be having their second doses, soaking up most of the NHS's daily capacity ? it would take 35 days. From March 12, this would end on April 16.?

The 見積（る）s are based on an ありそうもない 100 per cent uptake 率 and on the country having a big enough 供給（する） to 対処する with the number of doses needed each day which, from March, will 含む second doses for people who got their first jab at the start of the programme.?

Professor Chris Whitty, England's 長，指導者 医療の officer, said at a 負かす／撃墜するing Street 圧力（をかける） 会議／協議会 last night that it now looks as though all over-50s will need to be immunised ーするために stop hospitals 負担ing up with Covid 患者s again.

He said: 'If you look at the 状況／情勢 for people that have gone into hospital only 54 per cent of all the people who go into hospital are over that age [70].

'So what this means is that once we vaccinated 負かす／撃墜する to 70 and above ? 加える those who care for them, frontline NHS staff and frontline care 労働者s ? we should 意味ありげに 減ずる the number of deaths.

'But we will 減ずる by a much smaller number the number of people going into hospital...

'If we vaccinate all the way 負かす／撃墜する to the people over 50, and those who have 現実に got pre-存在するing health 条件s, you then get through 事実上 all the people who have a high chance of dying.

'So this is around 98 per cent of those who die are in that group. Importantly around 80 per cent, just over 80 per cent of all of those who go into hospital.'

Professor Whitty 追加するd: 'So the first wave which is the 目的（とする） is to 完全にする on the 15th of February we would 推定する／予想する a 状況／情勢 where we can stop a very high 割合 of the deaths but rather a smaller 割合 of the 圧力 on the NHS - those very large numbers in hospital.

'As you go の上に the next wave, 負かす／撃墜する to those over 50 we have その上の in roads into 減ずるing deaths and also 意味ありげに 減ずる the 圧力 on the NHS.'?

専門家s have 警告するd that lockdown must not be 解除するd too soon or an uncontrollable third wave of Covid could begin and kill thousands more people, 粉砕するing through 成果／努力s to 保護する the country with ワクチンs.

Warwick University 専門家s on the 政府's SAGE 委員会 said in a paper published last week that 緩和 制限s too soon could 事例／患者 deaths to spike 支援する above 1,000 per day, even with 効果的な ワクチンs in play.

They explained that even though the ワクチンs we have appear to work very 井戸／弁護士席, not everyone can or will 受託する the jab, and no ワクチン can ever 保護する 100 per cent of the people who do get it.?

People who couldn't be vaccinated for 医療の 推論する／理由s ? those who have an 極端に weak 免疫の system, for example ? will not be 保護するd, and neither will people who turned the jab 負かす／撃墜する, or those in the 割合 of people who it fails to 保護する. A 95 per cent 効果的な ワクチン, for example, would still 許す five out of 100 people to get Covid-19.

The 発見 that Oxford's ワクチン appears to 削減（する） the 危険 of someone catching coronavirus and passing it on by two thirds is 約束ing and 示唆するs it could 削除する 伝達／伝染 even between people with 穏やかな symptoms or 非，不，無, which would 鈍らせる a third wave.

But the Warwick 専門家s, in 研究 produced before the ワクチン接種 programme 攻撃する，衝突する its 現在の levels of success, 警告するd that at least 50,000 people are likely to die in 2021 and this could be much higher if 支配するs are 解除するd too soon.?

The wrote in their paper: 'Even 持続するing [早期に September] levels of NPI [非，不，無-製薬の 介入s; social distancing 支配するs] 支配（する）／統制する and having a 高度に efficacious ワクチン we 見積（る） over fifty thousand deaths are likely to occur from January 2021 予定 to the slow 拒絶する／低下する in 事例／患者s from its 現在の high level.

'早期に 緩和 of 支配（する）／統制する 対策 or low 感染 efficacy can lead to a pronounced その後の wave of 感染.?

'If we wish to 完全に 解除する all 制限s once both 段階s of the ワクチン接種 （選挙などの）運動をする are 完全にする, we 予報する a 相当な 突発／発生 with a large number of associated deaths.?

'When the ワクチン is not 感染 封鎖するing, 除去するing NPIs 誘発する／引き起こすs an uncontrolled wave of 感染 in which only those 首尾よく immunised will escape.'

They 予報するd that between 99,000 and 123,000 more people could die in 2021 if lockdown and social distancing come to an end, even in an '楽観的な' ワクチン シナリオ.

In いっそう少なく 暗い／優うつな news, however, some 専門家s （人命などを）奪う，主張する they are already starting to see the 影響s of ワクチン接種 in the death 率s of the most 年輩の people in the country.

Professor Daniel Howdon, a health 経済学者 at the University of 物陰／風下d, 明らかにする／漏らすd on Twitter that the fatality 率 の中で over-80s appears to be 落ちるing 急速な／放蕩な in the wake of the ワクチン接種 programme.

He said: 'All 80+ groups are showing やめる big (~25%) 落ちるs in the CFR [事例／患者 fatality 割合] vs 75-79 group. All very 試験的な for now but I think of 利益／興味.'

Professor Howdon, using Public Health England data, 公式文書，認めるd that the 割合 of Covid-肯定的な people over the age of 90 who were dying appeared to have dropped from 46.8 per cent at January's 頂点（に達する） to 34.7 per cent in the most 最近の week.

In 85 to 89-yea r-olds it fell from 40.6 per cent to 30.5 per cent, he said, in 80 to 84-year-olds it dropped from 32.9 to 24.4 per cent, and in 75 to 79-year-olds from 20.6 to 17.6 per cent.?

He said that いっそう少なく 圧力 on hospitals or longer lags between people catching the ウイルス and dying could account for these 影響s but also 示唆するd it was 'not too 不当な' to 推定する／予想する to see an 影響 from ワクチンs.

Professor Howdon 追加するd he was 'going to keep an 注目する，もくろむ on it. Even if this isn't an 影響 now, if ワクチン接種 減ずるs deaths more than 事例／患者s then we should see one soon enough.'