専門家s 明らかにする／漏らす which ウイルス is most likely to 原因（となる） the next pandemic - and where it will come from

• e-mail

The next pandemic could 誘発する from a 病気 with a 40 パーセント mortality 率 within just two １０年間s, 最高の，を越す virologists say ― 警告 Covid could have been just the tip of the pandemic iceberg.

DailyMail.com spoke to three ウイルス 専門家s who agreed a respiratory ウイルス ― spread 経由で droplets from coughs and sneezes ― was most likely to 誘発する／引き起こす the next 急速な／放蕩な-spreading 病気 that 原因（となる）s a 全世界の shutdown.

They said the 悪名高い '病気 X' would most likely appear after a farm 労働者 is 感染させるd with an animal-borne 病気 that 突然変異するs, but said they could not 支配する out the 災害 would be 誘発するd by a lab 漏れる, a main theory as to the origin of the Covid pandemic.

It was also possible, they 警告するd, for the 突発／発生 to be even worse than the Covid pandemic, pointing to the 1918 influenza 突発／発生, which killed an 概算の 50million people globally, compared to the seven million deaths from Covid.

最高の，を越す 犯人s for the next pandemic, the 専門家s 推測するd, were another coronavirus?and avian influenza ― a ウイルス that 感染させるs birds but could かもしれない jump to humans. This 病気 has led to the 虐殺（する） of five million birds in the US this year in an 試みる／企てる to 妨げる an 突発／発生. The 専門家s, though, could not 支配する out other 病気s like Ebola?and 突発／発生s from insect-borne 病気s like malaria and yellow fever.

There was a silver lining, however. They pointed to 早い 前進するs in ワクチン 科学（工学）技術 and antivirals as a 調印する the 製薬の 産業 would be able to 速く rollout 治療s against a pandemic 病気 when the next arises.

Below DailyMail.com 明らかにする／漏らすs the opinions of three 専門家s on what could 原因（となる） the next pandemic and where it could come from:

Dr Leonard Mermel: Avian influenza

An 感染性の 病気 専門家 told DailyMail.com he believes the next pandemic will be 原因（となる）d by an avian influenza?that 突然変異するs to spread 速く between humans.

Avian influenza, also referred to as bird flu and H5N1, is a ウイルス that まず第一に／本来 感染させるs birds and tends to be spread 経由で respiratory droplets. In rare 事例／患者s, this ウイルス can cross the 種類 divide and 感染させる 哺乳動物s ― 含むing humans.

Dr Leonard Me rmel from Brown University who has 熟考する／考慮するd ウイルスs for １０年間s, said the next ウイルス would likely appear when a poultry 労働者 sick with human flu is 感染させるd with the avian 緊張する at the same time.

Dr Leonard Mermel, an 感染性の 病気s 専門家 in Rhode Island, 示唆するd the next pandemic could be 原因（となる）d by avian influenza

He explained: 'These two ウイルスs would then 会合，会う inside one of their 独房s and 交換（する） 遺伝子s to create a new chimeric ウイルス.'

A chimeric ウイルス is one that 含む／封じ込めるs genetic 構成要素 from more than one ウイルス.?

The supervirus would then start to spread 速く from human to human 経由で respiratory droplets, he explained, spreading around the world and 誘発する／引き起こすing the next pandemic.

The Rhode Island-based 研究員 警告するd in the beginning the 緊張する could kill 30 to 40 パーセント of people it 感染させるs. For comparison, when Covid first 現れるd it had a fatality 率 of five パーセント in the 震源地 of?Wuhan.

中国?is the most likely place the new ウイルス would first appear, he said, because the country often 記録，記録的な／記録するs 事例／患者s of human 感染 with avian influenza.

Data from the World Health Organization showed 中国 has the third-highest number of human avian influenza 事例／患者s 記録，記録的な／記録するd since 2003, at 55 感染s.

It is behind Vietnam at 128 and Cambodia at 58, but the data is reliant on the number of 事例／患者s submitted by each country ― meaning the true （死傷者）数 may 現実に be much higher 予定 to 報告（する）／憶測ing 延期するs and 事例／患者s not 存在 記録，記録的な／記録するd.

Dr Mermel said: 'Something that has 関心d me for a long time is avian 緊張するs of influenza 存在 transmitted in humans, that is of 墓／厳粛／彫る／重大な 関心.

'One particular 緊張する is H5N1, which has made incremental changes over the past 10 to 20 years, but is yet to 発展させる to be easily transmitted from human-to-human.

'It has 伸び（る）d some 突然変異s so it can 感染させる humans, which is scary. On the other 手渡す, it has been around for a while, but I think we may be in a 誤った sense of 安全 at the same time. I think this is because these ウイルスs can 突然変異する very quickly.

Next pandemic could kill millions more than Covid

The next major pandemic is coming. It’s already on the horizon, and could be far worse ― 殺人，大当り millions more people ― than the last one.