Britain's safest 株

By Andrew Oxlade
Updated: 00:00 BST, 8 August 2001

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MANUFACTURING 産業 公式に slipped into 後退，不況 this week. 経済学者s 疑問 the 残り／休憩（する） of the UK economy will follow but they have drawn up a contingency 計画（する） for 投資家s in 事例／患者 it does.

By 鮮明度／定義 a 後退，不況 is where the economy 縮むs for two 連続した ４半期/4分の1s. 経済学者s believe this is ありそうもない to happ en here. They are banking on a turnaround in the US at the end of the year to pull the UK economy 支援する from the brink. But 年次の 経済成長 here slowed to a two-year low of 2.1% in the last ４半期/4分の1 and there are no 保証（人）s that the Americans will save us.

If the worst comes to the worst all is not lost. Shrewd 投資家s will 選ぶ 在庫／株s they believe are 後退，不況-proof. They did it in the 公式の／役人 world 後退，不況s of 1975, 1982 and 1991. Pure 防御のs - companies that still enjoy strong sales even when people are strapped for cash - 成し遂げるd 比較して 井戸／弁護士席 in each of those years. But finding 潔白 is the trick.

'We don't believe a 十分な-blown 後退，不況 will happen but if it does, people need to be in classic 防御のs,' says Jim 支持を得ようと努めるd-Smith, 長，指導者 分析家 at stockbrokers Gerrard.

'Ask yourself what we all still do if the world's coming apart? We still get ill - so buy 製薬の companies. We still wash, turn on the light switch and cook - so buy 公共事業（料金）／有用性s companies. Water companies are 特に 防御の because their main 顧客s are 世帯s, 反して electricity companies also rely on 需要・要求する from 産業 to an extent.'

タバコ companies, 加える food 製造者s and retailers are also considered 安全な-港／避難所s in 嵐の markets. But 支持を得ようと努めるd-Smith's preference for water 在庫／株s over electricity is an example of how 防御の 潔白 変化させるs. Consider healthcare: Smith & 甥 specialises in the 部門 making, の中で other things, 交替／補充 共同のs. In a 下降, 私的な 患者s may 延期する an 操作／手術 when times are hard, but they will still buy painkillers regardless. 製薬のs are therefore the purer play.

支持を得ようと努めるd-Smith also says the 潔白 of some food companies is 疑わしい. He says: '需要・要求する for 高級な and branded goods always 落ちるs in a 後退，不況, therefore food 製造業者s making these goods could be 攻撃を受けやすい.'

Canny 投資家s have already been piling into these 部門s to escape the 炉心溶融 of 科学（工学）技術, マスコミ and telecom 株. That has 押し進めるd 防御の 在庫／株 prices up, making them a いっそう少なく attractive proposition.

支持を得ようと努めるd-Smith says: 'Many of these 株 look fully valued, but if a 後退，不況 did come along 投資家s would be looking for a place to hide and their 勢い would 押し進める prices up again.' His favourite 防御のs are water company 部隊d 公共事業（料金）／有用性s, 麻薬s 巨大（な） GlaxoSmithKline, food retailer Tesco and food 製造者 Unilever.

投資 bank Merrill Lynch has drawn up a 名簿（に載せる）／表（にあげる） of 防御のs that 申し込む／申し出 high （株主への）配当 産する／生じるs, giving 投資家s income even if 株 prices languish. They must also have low volatility and higher than 普通の／平均（する） 収入s per 株.

The 名簿（に載せる）／表（にあげる） 含むd British American タバコ, 皇室の タバコ, drinks group Diageo, Associated British Foods, food 製造業者s Unilver and Geest, and food retailer Safeway.

With the bulls より数が多いing the 耐えるs on the 後退，不況 question, 投資家s should also be ready to 速く re-jig their 大臣の地位 if there is an 上昇. Cyclical 在庫／株s would be の中で the first to 回復する. They are 在庫／株s that depend on 消費者s having spare cash to spend. A 削減（する） in 利益／興味 率s from 6% to 5% this year has made mortgages cheaper and put more money in house-買い手s pockets. That has already helped cyclical 部門s such as leisure, 小売, construction and banks.

But Khuram Chaudry, 公正，普通株主権 strategist Merrill Lynch, believes that outperformance will continue once the economy turns around. He says: 'The economy looks like it's 長，率いるing for a soft 上陸 in the UK. I'd begin 在庫／株ing up on leisure and construction 在庫／株s at the first 調印する of that, and then on 工学 companies when we have 十分な 確定／確認 of a 回復.'

Chaudry's preferred cyclical plays are 保険 巨大（な） 合法的な & General, housebuilder Persimmon, Northern 激しく揺する bank and 着せる／賦与するs retailer Next. 支持を得ようと努めるd-Smith's favoured cyclical 在庫／株s 含む 航空宇宙学 groups Bae Systems and Smiths 産業s, 一括ing 会社／堅い Rexam, construction group Hanson and 採掘 巨大（な） Rio Tinto.