What a new US civil war could REALLY be like: 反逆者／反逆する generals defect to Trump after Biden 無法者s 'テロリスト' MAGA 支持者s... then Antifa start a 'kill whites' （選挙などの）運動をする. Far-権利 民兵s 遂行する／発効させる 少数，小数派s. Anarchy 爆発するs. Forget the movie...

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側面に位置するd by two 海洋s, 大統領 Joe Biden steps out of the 海洋 One chopper の上に the tarmac at Andrews 空気／公表する 軍隊 Base to 宣言する a 国家の 緊急.

It's 6pm on January 6, 2025, 20 miles from Washington DC. 'Four years ago, on this very day, Donald Trump tried to steal 僕主主義,' says the 82-year-old 指揮官-in-長，指導者, 除去するing his Aviator sunglasses to signal the gravity of his point. 'He's doing it again, folks. We must stop him, no 事柄 what.'

今後, Biden 法令s, Trump's Make America 広大な／多数の／重要な Again (Maga) movement will be 指定するd a テロリスト group. The Trump-owned Truth Social 壇・綱領・公約 will be shut 負かす／撃墜する. All internet 場所／位置s publishing '選挙（人）の misinformation' will be 封鎖するd.

Biden 繰り返し言うs that, contrary to his 対抗者's （人命などを）奪う，主張するs, he has been re-elected. And he invokes his 当局 to federalise the 国家の Guard until order can be 回復するd. 'I never 手配中の，お尋ね者 to do this,' he 主張するs. Above him, two F-22 Raptor jets 引き裂く through the sky, 長，率いるing に向かって the （ワシントンの）連邦議会議事堂.

Hours earlier, inside Washington DC, the 'Take Our Country 支援する' march, …に出席するd by 50,000 Trump fanatics, had descended into 集まり 暴動ing. Left-wing 'Antifa' 交戦的なs, in their neckerchiefs, threw Molotov cocktails into the red-hatted Maga （人が）群がるs.

In the new film, Civil War, Kirsten Dunst plays 物陰／風下 Smith, a renowned war photographer covering a civil war which has （海，煙などが）飲み込むd the nation

January 6 2021, when 支持者s of former 大統領，／社長 Donald Trump descended on the （ワシントンの）連邦議会議事堂 in Washington to 抗議する against the then 後継の 大統領, Joe Biden

Shops were 略奪するd and 粉砕するd. Dozens of 死体s lay on the grass of the 国家の 商店街. The 共同の 開会／開廷／会期 of 議会 certifying the 2024 選挙 has had to be abandoned. Three Democratic congressmen have gone 行方不明の, 推定するd dead.

As Biden makes his 演説（する）／住所, the man he 非難するs for the 大混乱 and 流血／虐殺 is 1,000 miles away in Florida, reading out his own 声明 from inside his 損なう-a-Lago 構内／化合物.

'This is a sad day,' says Donald Trump, surrounded by ひどく 武装した men. 'We never 手配中の，お尋ね者 to do this, but we must take our country 支援する. Crooked Joe has lost ― twice ― and he lost big. They can't steal another 選挙.' He thanks 知事 Ronald DeSantis, his former 共和国の／共和党の 競争相手, for 正式に 申し込む／申し出ing him 聖域 in the 明言する／公表する of Florida. 'We love you, Ron.'

In South Carolina, a far-権利 民兵 calling itself 'the Calhouns' ― after 'cast-アイロンをかける man' John C. Calhoun, the staunchly プロの／賛成の-slavery 19th-century 政治家 ― starts lining up 黒人／ボイコット people in the streets and 殺人ing them.

In Portland, Oregon, an Antifa leader known as 'Che' orders 信奉者s to 'kill whites on sight' ― even though he is white himself.

On 電報電信, the only wo rking social-マスコミ 壇・綱領・公約, Trumpists and 過激な 民主党員s arrange a 'live ammo re-（法の）制定' of the 戦う／戦い of Gettysburg in Pennsylvania. Seven プロの／賛成の-Trump U.S. generals 正式に break with the 米国防総省 and order their subordinates to fight against 'the Biden Tyranny'.

暴動s 勃発する in every major city across America.

知事 Greg Abbott of Texas follows Florida in 誓約（する）ing 忠誠 to Trump. 知事 Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, a 'NeverTrumper', is 発射 in the 長，率いる by a mystery marksman while giving an open-空気／公表する speech in the 明言する／公表する 資本／首都 of Concord.

California 知事 Gavin Newsom 宣言するs that, while he supports Joe Biden, with the nation in 大混乱, his Democratic 明言する／公表する ― with its economy bigger than the UK's ― must now 脱退する. Alaska, more than 2,000 miles from the contiguous U.S., and Hawaii, 2,400 miles away, follow 控訴. The 明言する／公表するs are no longer 部隊d.

削減（する）! Let's stop the paranoid imaginings there. But the above シナリオ is hardly more far-fetched than Civil War, a new film 始める，決める in the 近づく 未来, about a 壊滅的な U.S. 革命. British writer-director Alex Garland has conjured up a 陰謀（を企てる） in which the 'Western 軍隊s' ― a somewhat improbable 同盟 between Texas and California ― 戦う／戦いs against a delusional 独裁者-大統領，／社長 of the USA.

The story follows four annoyingly earnest 新聞記者／雑誌記者s as they 旅行 through the 大虐殺 of 衝突 into the heart of 不明瞭, Washington DC.

It's mostly high-octane nonsense: Apocalypse Now for angsty millennials. We're never told what the war is about.

必然的に, Garland has drawn 批評 from 進歩／革新的な reviewers who 告発する／非難する him of 存在 'evasively apolitical' ― i.e., he hasn't made the baddie a 露骨な／あからさまの 代表 of Donald Trump, while the goodies are not obvious 民主党員s on a 使節団 to save LGBTQ 権利s for humanity.

There is no 疑問, however, that the film has been 解放（する）d to chime with the U.S. 選挙 this November. The テレビ視聴者 is 明確に 招待するd to 反映する on the troubling extremism of 同時代の U.S. politics. One chauvinist character kills another just for 存在 Chinese. There's a 言及／関連 to a 伝説の 'Antifa 大虐殺', 加える several nods に向かって the 悪名高い 嵐／襲撃するing of the （ワシントンの）連邦議会議事堂 on January 6, 2021.

In the age of Biden vs Trump, when …に反対するing 投票者s truly loathe each other and 信用／信任 in the political system is at an かつてない low, this is potent stuff.

Worrying about the break-up of the 部隊d 明言する／公表するs has become a 国家の obsession. 最近の 調査するs show that more than 40 per cent of Americans think a new civil war will be fought within the next １０年間.

In 2022, the 政府-基金d Political 不安定 仕事 軍隊 発表するd that the U.S. should be considered a dangerous 'anocracy' ― a 明言する／公表する that is somewhere between 僕主主義 and 専制政治. In the 自由主義の Washington 地位，任命する, three U.S. generals 警告するd of the '可能性のある for a total 決裂／故障 of the chain of 命令（する） along 同志／支持者 lines' in the U.S. 軍の, should Donald Trump 辛うじて lose the next 選挙. It's the politics, stupid. Everybody knows that the Trump vs Biden sequel is likely to be even nastier than the horror show of four years ago. The 現職の is an ますます doddery leader so unloved that even a 大多数 of his own 投票者s say they would rather he stepped 負かす／撃墜する.

Former USp 居住（者） and 現在の 共和国の／共和党の 大統領の 候補者 Donald Trump sits at the 被告's （米）棚上げする／（英）提議する at Manhattan 犯罪の 法廷，裁判所 in New York, U.S.,

This famously brash 挑戦者 is 直面するing four 犯罪の 裁判，公判s on a total of 88 告発（する），告訴（する）／料金s and could be a 罪人／有罪を宣告するd felon by 選挙 day.

Both Biden and Trump like to use apocalyptic language to 述べる the political 火刑／賭けるs today. 'The 2024 選挙 is our last chance to save our country,' 宣言するs Trump. 'The same corrupt 軍隊s that have been fighting us every step of the way are now 粉々にするing every democratic norm to try to stop us from 敗北・負かすing them in this final 戦う／戦い.'

Biden, 一方／合間, says that equality and 僕主主義 are under 強襲，強姦. 'We do ourselves no favour to pretend さもなければ.' If he 勝利，勝つs, he argues, 'we can say we saved American 僕主主義'.

Trump, who still 主張するs that the last 選挙 was stolen, says this time his victory must be 'too big to 装備する'. But most 世論調査員s 推定する／予想する another very tight result. It's likely that only a few thousand 投票（する）s in several swing 明言する／公表するs will decide the 結果. One 共和国の／共和党の 助言者 says 2024 will be a 'knife fight to the death'. And Trump, we can be sure, will cry foul again if he is 宣言するd the loser.

Team Biden, for its part, has been busy working on 広範囲にわたる 計画（する）s to stop Trump trying 不公平に to （人命などを）奪う，主張する victory again. 上級の 民主党員s point out that, last time, many 共和国の／共和党の leaders, 含むing the 副大統領 マイク Pence, 辞退するd to go along with Trump's 'Big 嘘（をつく）'.

But in the past four years, The Donald has 強化するd his 教団-like 支配する on his party, so much so that today it's hard to imagine too many 上級の 共和国の／共和党のs gracefully 受託するing 敗北・負かす. Democratic 操作者s are whispering to reporters that their 味方する has been 準備するing to 封鎖する another 一連の 合法的な challenges from the Trump （選挙などの）運動をする and 'war-gaming' the worst-事例／患者 シナリオs.

To 共和国の／共和党のs, however, these 隠しだてする 計画／陰謀s to 'save 僕主主義' sound rather like a dastardly 誤った-旗 操作／手術 to defraud the American 選挙民 again. Trump has 公約するd to 'destroy the 深い 明言する／公表する' ― by which he means anti-Trump 軍隊s inside the 連邦検察局, the 中央情報局, the 司法（官） Department and どこかよそで. It would make sense, therefore, if those elements were plotting to destroy him first. 'My line is that they really should 恐れる a Maga 引き継ぎ／買収,' says one Trumpworld insider.

It's 平易な to forget that, in 2020, even before Trump threw his 選挙 tantrum, America almost went to war with itself. On May 25 that year, George Floyd died under a white policeman's 膝 in Minnesota. A ビデオ of the 殺人，大当り went viral. The 黒人／ボイコット Lives 事柄 movement 爆発するd and turned violent. The summer saw weeks of 暴動s in Minneapolis, New York, Chicago and どこかよそで. Shops were 粉砕するd and 略奪するd; cars and public buildings 燃やすd. The 損失 cost 保険 companies more than $1billion.

Partly in 返答, a 抱擁する number of Americans decided to arm themselves. Between 2019 and 2021, more than seven million people became new gun owners. A University of California 熟考する／考慮する showed that a worrying 44 per cent of new gun owners thought that political 暴力／激しさ could be 正当化するd. In a time of furious political polarisation, that sounds like very bad news.

'A house divided against itself cannot stand,' said the 広大な／多数の／重要な American 大統領，／社長 Abraham Lincoln. But the truth is that the Land of the 解放する／自由な has always been a restless 巨大（な）. Ever since the Civil War ended in 1865, U.S. 国民s have struggled to 打ち勝つ the shame of slave ry and 人種差別主義.

That might, in part, explain why re-制定するing that historical 衝突 is such a 国家の obsession: every year, tens of thousands of amateur historians travel to Gettysburg, Fort Donelson and other 場所／位置s to 行為／法令／行動する out the 広大な／多数の／重要な 戦う／戦いs between North and South. Since the convulsions of 2020, the pastime has grown in 人気.

The BLM 暴動s of 2020 were by no means the worst 衝突／不一致s in living memory. 支援する in August 1965, the 逮捕（する） of a 黒人／ボイコット man for drink-運動ing 誘発するd The ワットs 反乱 in Los Angeles, which led to 14,000 国家の Guardsmen 存在 called in to 回復する order.

Twenty-six years later, in the same city, four white police officers were filmed （警官の）巡回区域，受持ち区域ing a 黒人／ボイコット man 指名するd Rodney King. That 誘発する／引き起こすd more violent 抗議するs and 63 people died.

In 'the long, hot summer of 1967', some 150 race 暴動s broke out in cities across America, （人命などを）奪う，主張するing more than 80 lives. 'The 12th Street 暴動' in Detroit that year resulted in more than 7,000 逮捕（する）s and 43 deaths.

The next year saw その上の mayhem に引き続いて the 暗殺s of ツバメ Luther King in April and Bobby Kennedy two months later. And that summer, the Democratic 国家の 条約 (DNC) in Chicago turned into a street war between the police and 抗議する人s. This summer, the DNC will be held in Chicago again. It's possible that we'll see 類似の 騒動s, 特に given the discontent の中で 民主党員s over Biden's leadership and the Left-wing 激怒（する） at his support for イスラエル in the war in Gaza.

大混乱 続いて起こるs indoors on January 6 after the 暴徒 breeches 安全 and enters the （ワシントンの）連邦議会議事堂

But America today is divided more by class than race. Trump's 支持者s tend not to be as 豊富な or as educated as their Democratic 対抗者s. Psephologists call it the 'diploma divide'. In 1992, the 共和国の／共和党の George H. W. Bush won a 大多数 の中で college-educated whites ― 反して, in 2020, Trump lost their support by 15 百分率 points. 類似して in 1992, Bush won 45 per cent of white 投票者s without a college degree ― 反して, as in 2020, Trump won 65 per cent.

At the same time, the 民主党員s no longer appear able to 命令（する） an 圧倒的な 大多数 of 少数，小数派 投票（する）s. 投票s now show Trump nearly （警官の）巡回区域，受持ち区域ing Biden の中で Latino 投票者s and winning some 30 per cent of 投票（する）s from 黒人／ボイコット Americans.

The プロの／賛成の-Democratic 圧力（をかける） is eager to say that, in a second Trump 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語, a hardcore of 'Christian 国家主義者s' will 始める，決める about 設立するing an 率直に 権威主義者 政権 that 抑えるs all dissent. But this is fantasy 国境ing on hysteria.

Even the most troublesome 右翼 発言する／表明するs tend to recoil at talk of insurrection. 'Civil war?' says Roger 石／投石する, the いわゆる 'Prince of 不明瞭' and longtime Trump 助言者. 'I hope not. As someone who has made their living for years working in democratic 選挙s, I think that's the only way to 解決する the nation's problems.'

'I hope not,' echoes Tucker Carlson, the TV host often tipped to be Trump's next 副／悪徳行為 大統領，／社長. 'Of course we're on 跡をつける for one, but I think it'll be a while, probably several years after the 負債 危機 and 財政上の 崩壊（する）.'

Others 示唆する that, far from 急いでing major 衝突, the 豊富 of 小火器 will 妨げる one. 勝利者 Davis Hanson, the historian and author of The End Of Everything: How Wars Descend Into Annihilation, says he is '確信して a civil war is never going to happen. The people who 脅す it are ill-equipped to を取り引きする 伝統的な America'.

Universities may be 十分な of people who want to bring 負かす／撃墜する America, he says, but a large 大多数 of 国民s identify as 保守的な. 'They're very 有能な people. I don't think there was one person in my entire life as an academic at three or four universities that knew how to shoot a gun. Yet if I walk 負かす／撃墜する my 田舎の avenue at ten at night, I would not dare to knock on anybody's door. So I think, in that asymmetrical fashion, there isn't going to be any war.'

British people tend to scoff at America's Second 改正 権利 to keep and 耐える 武器, something we regard as a 遺物 of a more violent age.

One day, however, all that 兵器 might co me in handy.

• ?Freddy Gray is 副 editor of The 観客. Civil War is in cinemas now.