予報官 who's 予報するd every 大統領の 勝利者 正確に for 40 YEARS 明らかにする／漏らすs who he thinks will 勝利，勝つ 2024 選挙
- Professor Allan Lichtman has been 正確な in 予測s for four １０年間s
- He says his technique enables him 'to 予報する the 結果 of the popular 投票（する）'?
- 'A lot would have to go wrong' for his 予報するd 候補者 to lose
A historian who has 正確に 予報するd every 大統領の 選挙 since 1984 has 宣言するd that 'a lot would have to go wrong' for?Joe Biden?to lose to?Donald Trump - in November.
Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington,?DC, 工夫するd a system, which he 条件 '13 重要なs', and wrote a 1980s 調書をとる／予約する explaining the idea.
He says the technique enables him 'to 予報する the 結果 of the popular 投票（する） 単独で on historical factors and not the use of 候補者-preference 投票s, 策略 or （選挙などの）運動をする events.'
にもかかわらず 投票s showing Biden in trouble 国家的に and behind in several swing 明言する／公表するs, Lichtman believes its still in the 大統領，／社長's 好意 to 保持する office, with two of his 13 重要なs - 欠如（する） of serious 最初の／主要な challenge and incumbency - already in Biden's 好意.
'That's two 重要なs off the 最高の，を越す,' he said. 'That means six more 重要なs would have to 落ちる to 予報する his 敗北・負かす. A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.'?
A historian who has 正確に 予報するd every 大統領の 選挙 since 1984 has 宣言するd that 'a lot would have to go wrong' for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump - in November
にもかかわらず 投票s showing Biden in trouble 国家的に and behind in several swing 明言する／公表するs , Lichtman believes its still in the 大統領，／社長's 好意 to 保持する office, with two of his 13 重要なs - 欠如（する） of serious 最初の／主要な challenge and incumbency - already in Biden's 好意
Lichtman 正確に 予報するd Trump to 勝利，勝つ in 2016 and Biden to 勝利，勝つ in 2020
Lichtman is not impressed by 投票s showing Trump either 競争の激しい with or （警官の）巡回区域，受持ち区域ing Biden 国家的に and in 重要な swing 明言する／公表するs.?
'They're mesmerized by the wrong things, which is the 投票s,' he said. 'First of all, 投票s six, seven months before an 選挙 have 無 predictive value.'
It doesn't mean the Biden （選挙などの）運動をする can 行為／法令／行動する like it's a sure thing they'll repeat victory.?
'It's always possible there could be a cataclysmic enough event outside the 範囲 of the 重要なs that could 影響する／感情 the 選挙 and here we do have, for the first time, not just a former 大統領，／社長 but a major party 候補者 sitting in a 裁判，公判 and who knows if he's 罪人／有罪を宣告するd ? and there's a good chance he will be ? how that might 緊急発進する things.'
Lichtman （人命などを）奪う，主張するs the COVID-19 pandemic was an historical event that made him 予報する Biden's victory in 2020.
'The pandemic is what did him in,' he told The 後見人.?
'He congratulated me for 予報するing him but he didn't understand the 重要なs. The message of the 重要なs is it's governance not （選挙などの）運動をするing that counts and instead of 取引，協定ing substantively with the pandemic, as we know, he thought he could talk his way out of it and that sank him.'?
However, there are some of the 重要なs working in Trump's 好意.?
Biden is seen with Lichtman, 持つ／拘留するing a copy of his 調書をとる／予約する. Lichtman believes the 調印するs show 2024 傾向ing Biden's way
Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, D.C. , 工夫するd a system, which he 条件 '13 重要なs' , and wrote a 1980s 調書をとる／予約する explaining the idea
One of the 重要なs is a 重要な third-party 挑戦者, which may be Robert F. Kennedy Jr's 役割 in the race.
Two of the 重要なs 伴う／関わる the economy and while some 経済的な numbers have 傾向d in Biden's 好意, he has yet to see his 是認 率ing tick up for it.
Social 不安 is another 重要な that 跡をつけるs against Biden, with college campuses now a hotbed for anti-イスラエル 抗議するing, with many of the young people referring to the 大統領，／社長 as '集団殺戮 Joe.'
Both the 現職の's 教祖的指導力 and the 挑戦者's 教祖的指導力 are also seen as 重要なs and while many feel both 候補者s are too old, age appears to be more of a factor against Biden than Trump.?
It should be 公式文書，認めるd that while Lichtman technically was incorrect in 2000, 予報するing Al 血の塊／突き刺す would 勝利，勝つ, though he believes that to be a stolen 選挙 and said that 血の塊／突き刺す won the popular 投票（する）.
However, he also takes credit for getting Trump's 2016 victory 訂正する にもかかわらず Hillary Clinton winning the popular 投票（する）.?
He 収容する／認めるs that 関わりなく result, no system can ever be 完全に foolproof.
'It's 神経-racking because there are a lot of people who'd love to see me fail.' And if he does? 'I'm human. It doesn't mean my system's wrong. Nothing is perfect in the human world.'?
