MAIL ON SUNDAY COMMENT: If the Tories 持つ／拘留する their 神経, millions could still return to the 倍の
Beware of 従来の 知恵. It is meant to stop you from thinking, and so from 事実上の／代理, 独立して. For a long time now, political commentators who want to fit in with the （人が）群がる have been more or いっそう少なく assuming a 労働 General 選挙 victory. This 仮定／引き受けること 明らかにする／漏らすs itself in quirks of language, 特に on the BBC.
For instance, if Rishi Sunak says he can still 勝利，勝つ, an 'impartial' news 公式発表 will 報告（する）／憶測 that he '主張するs' he can, a verb 明確に 表明するing 疑問 that he is 権利. Yet 非，不，無 of those who ceaselessly 推定する the 結果 of the 投票 can かもしれない know it.
As quickly as 世論調査員s develop methods that 訂正する their past mistakes, new variables come into play. And the 世論調査員s' language 示唆するs much more movement than there 現実に is.
Take the 'enormous' 26 per cent 'swing' from Tory to 労働 at the Blackpool South 補欠選挙. This makes it sound as if thousands are switching energetically from one party to the other. But few 報告（する）／憶測s 公式文書，認めるd that the winning 労働 投票（する） was lower than it had been at the last General 選挙, when 労働 failed to 勝利，勝つ the seat. Who について言及するd that the 人出／投票者数 was 負かす／撃墜する from 32,752 to 18,375? Can it be wise to draw 会社／堅い 結論s without doing so?
For instance, if Rishi Sunak (pictured) says he can still 勝利，勝つ, an 'impartial' news 公式発表 will 報告（する）／憶測 that he '主張するs' he can, a verb 明確に 表明するing 疑問 that he is 権利
But few 報告（する）／憶測s 公式文書，認めるd that the winning 労働 投票（する） was lower than it had been at the last General 選挙, when 労働 failed to 勝利，勝つ the seat. Pictured: Keir Starmer
Our greatest living 専門家 on 投票s and 投票（する）ing, Professor Sir John Curtice, has 公式文書，認めるd that 労働 地元の 政府 support is in fact 弱めるing. It appears to be worse than it was un der Ed Miliband and hugely worse than it was in 1995 under Tony Blair.
Several results from different parts of the country 確認する this. 労働 is not 広範囲にわたる all before it. 投票者s know that 総選挙s change their 運命／宿命 大幅に. They also know that 補欠選挙s and 地元の 選挙s change little. So they let off steam by lending their 投票（する）s to parties they 普通は shun. Or they show their contempt by staying at home.
There is a good 取引，協定 more exasperated contempt for the Tories than there is enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer. This is 理解できる. The Tories have ? as we have often 警告するd them ? done themselves no favours by their repeated 内部の quarrels and their petulant ダンピング of the most popular leader they have had in １０年間s. But the last few months have seen 調印するs that there is now some sort of order and 目的 on the 橋（渡しをする） of HMS Tory.
The Rwanda 政策 is 速く taking 形態／調整 as a real deterrent to 移民／移住, with strong 独立した・無所属 証拠 of its 有効性 coming from Ireland. The economy is 静かに 回復するing, no mean feat.
It is perfectly reasonable for people to be tired of a 政府 after a long period in office; indeed, it is more or いっそう少なく compulsory. But surely only the sort of people who 支払う／賃金 to have 苦痛 （打撃，刑罰などを）与えるd on themselves would choose to have a worse 政府 because they do not like the 現在の 行政?
Instead of 事実上の／代理 as if a Starmer 勝利 is a foregone 結論, those who 述べる and explain our 国家の politics need to do some more work on what such a thing would mean. In 1997, 労働 ruthlessly 隠すd 破滅的な 政策s such as its （警察の）手入れ，急襲 on 私的な 年金s. What is the party 隠すing now?
There is still all to play for, and every 推論する／理由, when the day comes, for discontented Tories to return in their millions to the 保守的な 倍の.
< /div>
