Are we on the brink of a 後退，不況? 社債 market moves 誘発する／引き起こす 全世界の shock waves - what does it mean for your 投資s?

• e-mail

Doom-laden 予測s about a 全世界の 後退，不況 have 誘発するd a 全世界の market sell-off this week.

急落（する），激減（する）s in 在庫／株 values have been …を伴ってd by scary, jargon-filled discussion of a '産する／生じる curve inversion' by market pundits.

We look at what this means, whether a 後退，不況 is coming, and how individual 投資家s might 答える／応じる below.

Market watch: Doom-laden 予測s about a 全世界の 後退，不況 have 誘発するd a 全世界の sell-off

The FTSE 100 has shed more than 4 per cent of its value since the start of July, and の近くにd at?7117.15 on Friday. This is 原因（となる）ing 神経s at the prospect of a rocky autumn on the markets.?

一方／合間, 大統領 Donald Trump has sent a stream of 敵意を持った tweets about the 連邦の Reserve, and made 予測できない moves in his 現在進行中の 貿易（する） war with 中国. We could also be 長，率いるd for その上の turbulence in the run-up to Brexit.

What is an inverted 産する／生じる curve?

This week, 仲買人s were spooked by a US '産する／生じる curve inversion' which signals unusual behaviour in the 政府 社債 markets, and is usually a harbinger of 後退，不況.

The inversion occurs when market players 需要・要求する higher 利益／興味 率s for 貸付金ing a country money in the short 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 than they will over the long 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語.

This breaks their usual practice of regarding 負債 that is going be repaid quickly as the safest and 反映するs a 際立った 欠如（する） of 信用／信任 in that country's 近づく-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 経済的な health. Read more here.?

In more technical 条件, what happened was the 産する／生じる or return from 2-year US 政府 社債s - known as 財務省s - got higher than the 産する／生じる from US 10-year 社債s. And in the UK, the return from 2-year 政府 社債s started to 越える that from 5-year 社債s.

This is what market 専門家s are talking about when they use jargon like 'the 2-10 year inversion'.?

Should 投資家s be worried? Don't panic, but do pause for thought

'For the past 12 months, the 社債 market has been telling 投資家s that things are getting tougher around the world while 公正，普通株主権 投資家s have been merrily riding the wave higher and higher pretending that everything is just 罰金,' said Ryan Hughes, 長，率いる of active 大臣の地位s at AJ Bell.

'The trouble is that both can't be 権利 and history tells us that it's 一般に 社債 inves tors who are better at 予報するing events.

'This time around, 公正，普通株主権 投資家s have been panicked by an inverted 産する／生じる curve which in basic 条件 means that it's now cheaper for the 政府 to borrow money over 10 years than it is over two years.

'This 事柄s because history has shown that an inverted 産する／生じる curve is an excellent predictor of a 来たるべき 後退，不況 with the last seven 後退，不況s in the US all seeing an inverted 産する／生じる curve before the event.

'While this may sound worrying, the important thing to remember is that 投資するing is about the long 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語.?

'While the world is indeed slowing 負かす／撃墜する, trying to 予報する what will happen with 株式市場s is difficult and therefore having a long 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 投資 戦略 is very important.

'As the old adage goes "it's time in the market, not タイミング the market that counts". While this is certainly no time to panic, it is a good time to review your 投資 戦略 and 大臣の地位 to 確実にする it's suitable for your needs and gives appropriate diversification.

'Think about what each 持つ／拘留するing is doing in your 大臣の地位, make sure you've got a 幅の広い spread of 資産s and that you understand how your 基金 経営者／支配人s 投資する.

'Volatility is a normal part of 投資するing and while it's uncomfortable, the most important point is not to panic and behave irrationally as this can have 本気で 損失ing consequences for your long 称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 wealth.'

Graham Bishop, 投資 director at Heartwood 投資 管理／経営, said: '始める，決める と一緒に the last three years, 経済成長 remains weak.

'We see this as the 底（に届く） of another 小型の fluctuation in the economy, which 歴史的に often becomes the start of an 経済的な 上昇 (経由で central bank support).

'Today, though, with central 銀行利子 率 削減（する）s but no quantitative 緩和, 限られた／立憲的な 政府 spending 活動／戦闘 in 中国, and 貿易（する） 関心s on the rise again, we are more 用心深い.

'And as 全世界の growth approaches a possible '立ち往生させる 速度(を上げる）' of 2 per cent (a point last reached in 2015-16 when the world stood on the brink of 後退，不況), this should give 投資家s pause for thought.

'Certainly, high prices in 社債 and gold markets (typically safer 資産 types in 騒然とした market 条件s) point to 関心 の中で 投資家s.

'At the same time, 比較して sanguine 株式市場s appear to be singing from a rather different hymn sheet, as has so often been the 事例／患者 in 最近の history.

'株式市場s are 貿易（する）ing the 'lower-for-longer' 主題, 支援 an 環境 of low 利益／興味 率s, インフレーション, 社債 産する／生じるs and 経済成長.

'However, にもかかわらず little change on the surface, 危険s to the 全世界の economy have risen, 原因（となる）ing 頭痛s for 投資家s and 主要な us to bring our 株式市場 （危険などに）さらす 支援する 負かす／撃墜する to '中立の'.

'まっただ中に the swing toward a 'hard Brexit' in the UK 閣僚, we have also adjusted our UK （危険などに）さらす away from the small- and medium-sized companies whose 株 prices might have 利益d most from a Brexit 取引，協定.'

Sources: Heartwood, Bloomberg, Macrobond

Sources: Heartwood, Bloomberg, Macrobond, Goldman Sachs

Trevor Greetham, 長，率いる of multi-資産 at 王室の London 資産 管理／経営, said: '株式市場s have fallen はっきりと over the last month after 大統領 Trump surprised the world (and his closest 助言者s) by 発表するing a new 10 per cent 関税 on a wide 範囲 of Chinese goods.

'He was 失望させるd that the 連邦の Reserve's July 利益／興味 率 削減（する）, the first in 10 years, was only a ４半期/4分の1 of a パーセント.

'We 嫌疑者，容疑者／疑う he wants to see more 積極的な 利益／興味 率 削減（する）s thi s year to 上げる the US economy ahead of the November 2020 大統領の 選挙 and thinks 発表するing new 関税s is a way to get them.

'This is a dangerous 手段. 商売／仕事 信用／信任 was already at a low ebb and 投資家s 恐れる a その上の ratcheting up of 貿易（する） 緊張s along with a possible No 取引，協定 Brexit may be enough to 押し進める major economies into a 十分な blown 後退，不況.

'産する／生じる curves tend to invert ahead of 後退，不況s but the leads can be very long, anywhere between ten and thirty three months over the past five US 後退，不況s.'

US 大統領 Donald Trump and Chinese 大統領 Xi Jinping: One 投資するing 専門家 reckons Trump 発表するd new 関税s on 中国 to 軍隊 利益／興味 率 削減（する）s that could 上げる the economy ahead of the 2020 選挙

What do 経済的な and markets 専門家s say? 産する／生じる curve inversion 'いっそう少なく ominous' than it might seem

Nobel prize-winning US 経済学者 Paul Krugman 注入するd a 'small 公式文書，認める of 非，不，無-panic over 社債 産する／生じるs', tweeting that the US 10-year 産する／生じる is still higher than in much of 2016, when it didn't presage 後退，不況.

'The 推論する／理由 we have a 産する／生じる curve inversion is that the Fed raised short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 率s. That now looks like a （疑いを）晴らす mistake ― partly bc the Fed misjudged the labor market, partly bc it gave too much credence to 刺激 from 税金 削減（する）.

'But I think this story makes the 産する／生じる curve inversion いっそう少なく ominous than it might さもなければ seem.'

Craig Erlam, 上級の market 分析家 at OANDA, said: 'This week everyone has become obsessed with the inverted 産する／生じる curve and whether it means we're 長，率いるd for 後退，不況 or if it's 'different this time'.

'Of course, it's always different this time. Although there are good arguments why 'this time' that may 現実に be true.

'The problem we have is that if enough people are 納得させるd, it could become self-実行するing.?

'The reality is that this is just a 傾向 that has been reliable over the last 50 years or so, rather than having any solid 創立／基礎.

'If Trump and Xi miraculously 解決する the 貿易（する） war tomorrow, are we still 長，率いるd for 後退，不況? I would think not and the curve would adjust to 反映する that.

'At this 行う／開催する／段階 though, there's probably more 推論する／理由 to have 約束 in an 指示する人（物） like the 2-10 inversion than the US and 中国 bringing an end to this unnecessary 損失ing 演習.

'Trump is happy to continue to 非難する the Fed for any 証拠 of the 貿易（する） war 傷つけるing the US while both 味方するs seem happy to see this through and 受託する the consequences.'

Kristina Hooper, 長，指導者 全世界の market strategist at Invesco, said: 'We would 警告を与える 投資家s from assuming that the 簡潔な／要約する inversion of the 産する／生じる curve is bound to lead to a 来たるべき 後退，不況.

'商売／仕事 cycles typically end with 政策 mistakes. In most instances, the 政策 mistake has been the US 連邦の Reserve over-積極性 raising short-称する，呼ぶ／期間／用語 利益／興味 率s to 少なくなる inflationary p ressures and/or 抑制（する） 超過s.

'This year, the Fed has already lowered 利益／興味 率s to begin undoing the 率 増加するs/可能性のある 政策 mistakes of 2018.'

連邦の Reserve in Washington:? Powerful US central bank raised 利益／興味 率s four times in 2018, but recently 削減（する） the cost of borrowing by 0.25 百分率 points

She went on: 'The 現在進行中の 不確定 of the US-中国 貿易（する） 衝突 has been eroding 感情 and slowing 商売／仕事 投資.

'Importantly, 保護貿易主義, in and of itself, has 歴史的に led to inefficient 経済的な 結果s, but not やむを得ず 後退，不況s.?

'Rather, it's the 不確定 surrounding the 未来 貿易（する） 指導基準s that has been grinding 投資 to a 停止（させる）.

'In our 見解（をとる）, a silver lining for 投資家s is that the US's 現在の troubles are 大部分は self-（打撃，刑罰などを）与えるd, the lagged result of last year's Fed 強化するing and the 欠如（する） of clarity on 貿易（する） from the Trump 行政.

'The Fed has already 支援するd off its 強化するing 姿勢. All 注目する，もくろむs are now on the 行政, as we believe there is still time to 介入する in this slow-動議 事故 and 避ける a 後退，不況.

'In our 見解（をとる）, "winning" the 貿易（する） 衝突 with 中国 is very ありそうもない, and we 持つ／拘留する out hope that the US will recognise this.'

DIY INVESTING PLATFORMS

平易な 投資するing

在庫／株s & 株 Isa

£1.50 基金 取引，協定ing

0.25% 料金 on 基金 holdings

投資 ideas

解放する／自由な 基金 取引，協定ing

解放する／自由な 基金 取引，協定ing

0.45% account 料金 capped for 株

Flat-料金 投資するing

No 料金s

From £4.99 a month

貿易（する） 株 and 基金s for £3.99

Social 投資するing

Social 投資するing

株 投資するing

30+ million 全世界の community

No account 料金

投資 account

解放する／自由な 株 取引，協定ing

解放する／自由な わずかの 株*

(v)提携させる(n)支部，加入者 links: If you take out a 製品 This is Money may earn a （売買）手数料，委託（する）／委員会／権限. This does not 影響する／感情 our 編集（者）の independence. *T&Cs 適用する.

> Compare the best 投資するing 壇・綱領・公約 for you

?

?