How would 株 fare in a hung 議会?

?

With the General 選挙 ぼんやり現れるing and neither main party 持つ/拘留するing a 決定的な lead in the 投票s, we ask our パネル盤 of 専門家s what they 推定する/予想する will happen to 株 prices if there is a hung 議会.

Big ben in a noose

Peter Hargreaves
長,指導者 (n)役員/(a)執行力のある, Hargreaves Lansdown

Change? 落ちる

'A Hung 議会 will be the worst possible result for our economy. The 続けざまに猛撃する will 苦しむ the most and could depreciate 10% or 15%. 公正,普通株主権s would be nervous.

'There would be an 初期の kneejerk reaction to the 恐れる that the only 手段 to 緩和する the 赤字 would be 税金 rises.

'It could 誘発する/引き起こす a 類似の 状況/情勢 to 1974, when the 政府 was 結局 軍隊d to go to the International 通貨の 基金 for a 貸付金.'

Ros Altmann

Ros Altmann

知事 of the London School of 経済的なs

Change? 落ちる

'Markets never like 不確定, and there are 緊急の 経済的な 政策s that need to be put in place to pull the British economy 支援する の上に a 維持できる path.

'In fact, 株 may 落ちる whatever happens, at least 最初, while markets wait to see what type of 対策 are put in place.'

Justin Urquhart Stewart

Justin Urquhart Stewart

Director and co-創立者 of Seven 投資 管理/経営

Change? 落ちる

'A hung 議会 will have a greater 影響 on 政府 gilts, because there could be 神経s about the 不確定 of 明言する/公表する 政策 over 負債-削減 計画(する)s.

'The FTSE 100 would be いっそう少なく 影響する/感情d because it is a much more international market, with more than 65 % of all 利益(をあげる)s coming from outside Britain - and, of course, they become more 価値のある with a lower 続けざまに猛撃する.

'The 株式市場, though, will 弱める (特に the FTSE 250) if it loses 約束 in the 政府's ability to grow the economy.'

Andrew Clare
Professor at Cass 商売/仕事 School and 議長,司会を務める of Fathom 協議するing

Change? 落ちる

'A hung 議会 will create 重要な 不確定 for all 英貨の/純銀の denominated 資産s.

'If the 可能性 of this 結果 rises as we approach the General 選挙, 英貨の/純銀の will 落ちる against most major 通貨s (though いっそう少なく so against the euro), as would the prices of 政府 社債s. Small to 中央の-cap UK 在庫/株s would also 落ちる in value, though the FTSE 100, with its 全世界の 商売/仕事 焦点(を合わせる) would probably fair better.

However, once the 不確定s have been 解決するd by the 結局の 連立政権, I would 推定する/予想する British 公正,普通株主権s to 回復する any of their 政治上 関係のある losses quickly.'

Ruth Lea

Ruth Lea

経済的な 助言者 for Arbuthnot Banking Group

Change? 落ちる

'The markets would be understandably 関心d that the necessary 会計の corrective will not be 器具/実施するd. This country is not used to 少数,小数派 and/or 連立政権s, and it's not (疑いを)晴らす how parties would work together to make the 要求するd hard 決定/判定勝ち(する)s. 信用/信任 in all British 資産s, 含むing 株, would probably be 土台を崩すd.'

Neville Richardson

Neville Richardson

長,指導者 (n)役員/(a)執行力のある of Co-operative 財政上の Services:

Change? 非,不,無

'政府 borrowing will need 緊急の 活動/戦闘 after the 選挙. A hung 議会 could make that difficult, and that's why 投資家s have 関心s.

'However, I believe these worries are 存在 factored in by the markets, and would 推定する/予想する the 衝撃 on 株 to be 限られた/立憲的な. So 株-based 投資s can still make sense for 投資家s willing to 耐える the ups and 負かす/撃墜するs of the market.'

Edward Bonham-Carter

Edward Bonham-Carter of Jupiter

長,指導者 (n)役員/(a)執行力のある of Jupiter 資産 管理/経営

Change? 落ちる/非,不,無

'A hung 議会 will 増加する 不確定 relating to 経済的な 政策 and this would be 消極的な for 株 prices. 'にもかかわらず, if the 投票s show the 見込み of a hung 議会 and the market 心配するs this result, the 株式市場 indices may 反応する いっそう少なく negatively after the 選挙.

'In the medium 称する,呼ぶ/期間/用語, international 軍隊s will have a far more 重要な 影響 on the British economy and 株式市場.'

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