イスラエル's 限られた／立憲的な attack on Iran is a 'deescalatory strike' that 許すs both countries to step 支援する while saving 直面する, 専門家s believe

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The 申し立てられた／疑わしい Israeli attack on Iran this morning was so 手段d that it could be considered a 'deescalatory strike', 専門家s have （人命などを）奪う，主張するd, as both 味方するs can ill-afford an all-out war.?

The city of Isfahan in central Iran was struck at 5am 地元の time, with Israeli drones 報告（する）／憶測d to have 的d?an 空気／公表する 軍隊 base which long has been home to Iran's (n)艦隊／(a)素早い of American-made F-14 Tomcats - 購入（する）d before the 1979 Islamic 革命.

Isfahan is also a known hotbed for Iran's 核の 研究 and houses drone 生産／産物 工場／植物s - but the attack is thought to have 原因（となる）d little 構成要素 損失, and no 死傷者s have been 報告（する）／憶測d.

Iranian 公式の／役人s sought to downplay any 重要な 損失 to its 軍の 施設s and 完全な 否定するd any 核の 工場／植物s were destroyed, while?Iranian 明言する／公表する TV this morning 解放（する）d （映画の）フィート数 of an undisturbed Isfahan to cast 疑問 on 報告（する）／憶測s the city had been 攻撃する，衝突する.

Dr Andreas Krieg, an 専門家 on Middle Eastern 安全 and 上級の Lecturer at King's College London's School of 安全 熟考する／考慮するs, told MailOnline that such a 限られた／立憲的な strike could be seen as an 成果／努力 by Tel Aviv to climb 負かす／撃墜する from a major kinetic 衝突.

Strikes have 攻撃する，衝突する at least one 的 in Iran, US 公式の／役人s 報道によれば 確認するd. The extent of the 損失 and exact 場所 of the attack is 不明瞭な (unconfirmed image)?

Unconfirmed （映画の）フィート数 株d on social マスコミ appeared to show anti-航空機 解雇する／砲火／射撃 striking over the city of Isfahan in central Iran, which hosts one of the nation's 核の 施設s?

'If this is the extent of イスラエル's 報復 it could be 述べるd as a deescalatory strike. The use of small drones such as quadcopters 供給するs a degree of plausible deniability that could help Iran downplay the 影響 of the attack,' he said.

'We could say that this attack makes a return to the 影をつくる／尾行する war that has been 現在進行中の for years if that is the extent of it.

He 追加するd: 'The Iranians would have to 答える／応じる to a strike that is not deniable or 伴う／関わるd Israeli jets over Iran - but this attack does not cross the threshold. Neither 味方する wants an all-out war.'

Iranian 公式の／役人s 一方／合間 told Reuters that Tehran has no 計画（する） for 即座の 報復 against イスラエル, 否定するing 声明s made by several 上級の 政治家，政治屋s earlier this week.

イスラエル strikes 支援する at Iran: 爆発s 激しく揺する airbase in city linked to Tehran's 核兵器 program as Netanyahu 開始する，打ち上げるs attack in 反抗 of Biden

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'The foreign source of the 出来事/事件 has not been 確認するd. We have not received any 外部の attack, and the discussion leans more に向かって infiltration than attack,' one Iranian 公式の／役人 said on 条件 of anonymity.

In the days に引き続いて?Iran's 砲撃 of イスラエル with ミサイルs and drones last Saturday, Israeli 大臣s 公約するd to strike 支援する, with Tel Aviv's hawkish 国家の 安全 大臣 Itamar Ben-Gvir 宣言するing his nation must be 用意が出来ている 'to go berserk' on Tehran.?

As such, the small-規模 strikes were not received 井戸／弁護士席 by the hard-権利 elements of Israeli 総理大臣 Benjamin Netanyahu's War 閣僚, with Ben-Gvir himself deriding this morning's 爆発s in Iran as 'feeble'.

But 分析家s say Netanyahu, whose 人気 has 急落するd in イスラエル with dozens of 人質s still in 捕らわれた in Gaza after six months of war with Hamas, finds himself in a difficult position.

イスラエル can ill-afford a major 衝突 with Iran, 特に as the IDF is stretched to capacity まっただ中に the 現在進行中の 軍の 操作／手術s against Hamas and intermittent 小競り合いs with Hezbollah at the northern 国境 with Lebanon.?

But inte rnational vitriol over the IDF's 残虐な six-month 砲撃 of Gaza, which has so far 原因（となる）d the deaths of more than 33,000 Palestinians in just six months, dissipated に引き続いて Iran's strike last 週末, with the US, UK and other 同盟（する）s 再確認するing their support for イスラエル in wake of Tehran's 侵略.?

With this in mind, Dr Krieg 追加するd that Netanyahu may 追求する a （選挙などの）運動をする of 限られた／立憲的な strikes on Iranian 国／地域 - or 焦点（を合わせる）ing attacks on Iran's proxies in the 地域.

'I think a 長引かせるd but manageable 衝突 is in Netanyahu's 利益／興味. That can be 達成するd by 延長するing the 衝突 with Iran's Axis of 抵抗. This is a low 危険 衝突 that keeps イスラエル on high 警報 without the 危険 of becoming existential.

'イスラエル might decide to engage in a 一連の 分散させるd attacks over time that are 個々に so ごくわずかの that Iran doesn't have to 答える／応じる. 'イスラエル might 訴える手段／行楽地 to Iran's 戦略 of "death by a 1000 削減（する）s" which is difficult to 阻止する.'

類似の 感情s were 表明するd by Justin Crump,?British army 退役軍人 and CEO of 全世界の 危険 分析 会社／堅い Sibylline.

'It remains to be seen if this is the start of a more 一致した （選挙などの）運動をする by イスラエル 刻々と to 害（を与える） Iran while remaining below an escalation threshold, or an 孤立するd 行為／法令／行動する,' he told MailOnline in the wake of the 夜通し strikes.

'Iran has its own 内部の problems with spiralling インフレーション and anti-政権 感情 and is so far keen for things not to 増大する. While it has 類似して sub-threshold ways to 答える／応じる, and will likely do so, this 限界s more major escalation.

'However,' he continued, 'this cannot now truly be a return to 商売／仕事 as usual and I would 示唆する that honour is far from 満足させるd on both 味方するs at the moment.'

While he said the Israeli strikes 'may give the illusion that we have threaded the needle on the 危機, [...] the baseline level of 警報 across the 地域 is now going to be 増大するd for an 延長するd period.'

軍の 職員／兵員 stand guard at a 核の 施設 in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024

軍の 職員／兵員 stand guard at a 核の 施設 in the Zardanjan area of Isfahan, Iran, April 19, 2024

An 空中の 見解（をとる） shows a 核の 施設 in Isfahan, Iran, March 30, 2005, in this screengrab taken from ビデオ

He 追加するd: 'The 危険 of miscalculations is higher and the many points of 緊張 remain, most 明白に Gaza, but also around Iran's 核の ambitions and 能力s. If this truly is it from イスラエル [...] then there is a window for 激しい 外交, but how long that remains stable and open is yet to be seen.'

Earlier this week, Mr Crump said a 長引いた 衝突 may 利益 Netanyahu by 減ずるing the political 圧力 over?イスラエル's war in Gaza.

'Permacrisis 控訴s Netanyahu at this 行う／開催する／段階. This 状況／情勢 has certainly helped イスラエル and its leadership, 逆転するing the 傾向 of 圧力 over Gaza and helping 信管を取り除く some political 緊張s that were once again building.?

'It is to be 推定する／予想するd that Netanyahu will てこ入れ／借入資本 this 環境. The Israeli public 姿勢 from the War 閣僚 will therefore remain belligerent, whatever goes on behind the scenes.'

However, some 警告を与えるd there is still 可能性のある for a wider 衝突 to 誘発する, arguing that the 貿易（する）ing of kinetic strikes 代表するs a 重要な 転換 in the 支配するs of 約束／交戦 between Tel Aviv and Tehran.?

'The April 13 ミサイル strikes by Iran 論証するd a 転換 in the country's 姿勢 to one more open to direct 軍の 約束／交戦 ? having 以前 relied on the use of the 民兵s its 支援するs どこかよそで to carry out attacks,'?Gabrielle Reid, Associate Director at 安全 会社／堅い S-RM said.?

'It is （疑いを）晴らす that both countries are 辛勝する／優位ing 敵意s 今後. This approach runs the 危険 of miscalculation or misinterpretation of the 活動／戦闘s of the other 味方する that could 意味ありげに 増大する the 状況／情勢.?

'Now, it comes 負かす／撃墜する to how Iran will 答える／応じる. 早期に 調印するs 示す that Iran is 最高潮の場面ing the success of its own defence systems and has 繰り返し言うd that the attack had little 衝撃, downplaying the 出来事/事件. However, this could change should there be any その上の strikes from イスラエル.'

ロケット／急騰する 追跡するs are seen in the sky above Al-Aqsa イスラム教寺院 in Jerusalem as Iranian ミサイルs are 迎撃するd by 空気／公表する defences

イスラエル could 捜し出す to up the intensity of its operati ons against Iranian proxy 軍隊s in the 地域?

A woman walks past a 旗，新聞一面トップの大見出し／大々的に報道する 描写するing 開始する，打ち上げるing ミサイルs 耐えるing the emblem of the Islamic 共和国 of Iran in central Tehran on April 15, 2024

運転者s 運動 their 乗り物s past a billboard 描写するing 指名するd Iranian 弾道学の ミサイルs in service, with text in Arabic reading 'the honest [person's] 約束' and in Persian 'イスラエル is 女性 than a spider's web', in Valiasr Square in central Tehran on April 15, 2024

A handout image 得る，とらえる made 利用できる by the Iranian 明言する／公表する TV, the Islamic 共和国 of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), shows what the TV said was a live picture of the city of Isfahan 早期に on April 19, 2024

No 公式の／役人 comment has been 解放（する）d by イスラエル or the US in the wake of the 爆発s in Iran.?< /p>

Iran 脅すs to use '武器s it has never used' in 'painful and 厳しい' 返答 if イスラエル 開始する，打ち上げるs 報復の airstrikes?

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Iranian 国家の 安全 委員会 公式の／役人 Abolfazl Amoue 宣言するd earlier this week that Tehran is '用意が出来ている to use a 武器 that we have never used' if イスラエル 答える／応じるs その上の.?

And Iran's 外務大臣 told CNN yesterday that Tehran's 返答 to an Israeli strike would be 即座の.?

'If the Israeli 政権 commits the 広大な／多数の／重要な error once again our 返答 will be 決定的な, 最終的な and regretful for them,' Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said.?

But 公式の／役人s 特記する／引用するd by Reuters this morning went against these 声明s, 説 Iran had no 即座の 返答 planned.??

（映画の）フィート数 広まる social マスコミ appears to show 爆発s 総計費 in Iran, though MailOnline has not been able to 確認する the （映画の）フィート数.?

すぐに after 報告（する）／憶測s of strikes 現れるd, three drones were '首尾よく 発射 負かす／撃墜する by the country's 空気／公表する defence', によれば Iran's 国家の Cyberspace 中心 広報担当者 Hossein Dalirain on X.?

Israeli 公式の／役人s 警告するd the Biden 行政 of its 意図 to strike before 開始する，打ち上げるing in previous days, but an 公式の／役人 told CNN that the US did not 'green light' any Israeli 返答.?

Hours before, US Defence 長官 Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli 相当するもの Yoav Gallant on Thursday afternoon, but a 上級の source 拒絶する／低下するd to 確認する to the New York Times?whether Gallant 警告するd about the strikes に引き続いて the 会合.??

Israeli 軍の sources 報道によれば 強調する／ストレスd that today's strikes were a '限られた／立憲的な 返答' to Iran's attack, appearing to 的 軍の 中心s used by Iran in their 猛攻撃 on Saturday.?

Around four hours after 報告（する）／憶測s of strikes, Iran 解除するd flight 中断s and opened its airports, with 滑走路s in Tehran, Isfahan and Shiraz の近くにd まっただ中に the Israeli attack.?

その上の 爆発s 報道によれば 攻撃する，衝突する 軍の 的s in?Iraq and Syria?around the same time.?Syria's 明言する／公表する-run SANA news 機関 引用するd a 軍の 声明 as 説?イスラエル carried out a ミサイル strike 的ing an 空気／公表する defence 部隊 in its south, 原因（となる）ing 構成要素 損失.??

The Britain-based Syrian 観測所 for Human 権利s, an 対立 war 監視する, said the strike 攻撃する，衝突する a 軍の レーダ for 政府 軍隊s. It was not （疑いを）晴らす if there were 死傷者s, the 観測所 said.

The 観測所's 長，指導者 Rami Abdurrahman said six Israeli 闘士，戦闘機 jets entered Syria's 領空 and were 飛行機で行くing east when they were spotted by the レーダ.