Vietnam is primed for growth - a postcard from a 基金 経営者／支配人 on?Asia's rising 投資 星／主役にする

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What makes Vietnam a strong 競争相手 for the best growth story in Asia??

Baillie Gifford's Roderick Snell, 経営者／支配人 of the 太平洋の Horizon 投資 信用 visits a dynamic economy leaving its historical baggage behind.

Please remember that the value of an 投資 can 落ちる and you may not get 支援する the 量 投資するd.?

Baillie Gifford's Roderick Snell, 経営者／支配人 of the 太平洋の Horizon 投資 信用

In 売春婦 Chi Minh City, rivers of cars and motorcycles endlessly cross and 合併する from cluttered 味方する streets into French-built boulevards. This intricate interplay, somewhere between 協調 and 競争, looks like 大混乱. But it 作品.

冒険的な a fetching, orange-（土地などの）細長い一片d helmet, I'm riding pillion on a 1980s-model Vespa, 小旅行するing the southern Vietnamese city with the more adventurous board members of 太平洋の Horizon 投資 信用.?

Our ride follows a day of 支援する-to-支援する 会合s with 信用 大臣の地位 companies and 見込みのある 新規加入s.?

It reacquaints me with the sights, sounds and smells of Saigon: the old 指名する used interchangeably with that honouring 'Uncle 売春婦', 共産主義者 father of modern Vietnam.

I always enjoy a re-immersion in one of my favourite cities, an evocative fusion of new Asia and old Europe.?

The buzz and klaxons of uncountable 乗り物s and the wafting smell of fresh baguettes for Saigon's meaty, herby b?nh m? 挟むs complement passing 見解（をとる）s of the pompous and picturesque architecture of French 植民地主義.

The city feels different this time, but why? One 有形の change is the 増加するd 割合 of four-wheeled to two-wheeled traffic. More 広範囲にわたって, I sense a city crossing the threshold from 存在 an 現れるing market metropolis to something more… 現れるd.?

Saigon is still affable and affordable, but its 妨げる／法廷，弁護士業s and restaurants are smartening up. Things work better than I remember.

In 売春婦 Chi Minh City, rivers of cars and motorcycles endlessly cross and 合併する from cluttered 味方する streets into French-built boulevards

構造上の growth 星／主役にする

会合s with company bosses, 同様に as 経済学者s, 銀行業者s and 共産主義者 Party 公式の／役人s with long 肩書を与えるs, 増強する my sense that Vietnam is the best 構造上の growth story of any country in Asia.?

It's a likely exception to the 支配する that most 現れるing markets never やめる get there.

Instead, like Thailand or Malaysia, they get stuck in the 'middle-income 罠（にかける）' of about $10,000 (£8,000) per capita.?

Vietnam is still far short of that at $4,000, but the vibrancy of Saigon and the sense of 目的 伝えるd in our 会合s 示唆する a country on the 急速な／放蕩な 跡をつける trodden by Asian tigers such as South Korea and Taiwan.

I first （機の）カム here in 2016, which was 10 years after 太平洋の Horizon first 投資するd 経由で Dragon 資本／首都's VEIL (Vietnam 企業 投資s 限られた／立憲的な) 基金. Dragon was 設立するd in 1995 by a British entrepreneur, five years before the first 在庫／株 交流 opened in the then-強行路線 Marxist-Leninist country.

Throughout the 2000s, 公式の／役人 ideology and red tape made VEIL the only 平易な way to 投資する in Vietnamese 会社／堅いs. But 適切な時期s have opened up since, and after a burst of liberalisation in 2015-2016, we started buying individual companies.?

Now, about 8 per cent of the 信用's 大臣の地位 is 投資するd in Vietnam, in 部門s as diverse as seafood, IT outsourcing services, 動きやすい telephony and construction 構成要素s.

March of the 製造者s

Others' experiences taught Vietnam's leaders that the only proven way to 基金 a sustainably growing 国内の economy is through 製造業の goods for 輸出（する）. In other words, not by relying on 商品／必需品s with their cyclical prices or by 誘惑するing foreign 財政／金融, which floods in and out with every 地域の にわか景気 and 破産した／（警察が）手入れする.

How has Vietnam pulled off this trick and become a successful 輸出（する） 製造業の base??

After all, it carries 激しい geopolitical baggage: many １０年間s fighting フラン, the US and (簡潔に) 中国, 加える a bitter civil war and 再統一. That anti-資本主義者 hard line started 軟化するing in the late 1980s.?

Now the 政府’s 優先s 含む 取り組むing 汚職, a （選挙などの）運動をする that recently 軍隊d the 辞職 of the 大統領，／社長, and sorting out 組織／基盤／下部構造 失敗s such as 時折の 力／強力にする 削減（する）s.?

We're lucky that 太平洋の Horizon's board 追加するs 価値のある 視野s on Vietnam's 進歩.

On a break in our Vespa 小旅行する, over Saigonese street food and beers, I tap into their 集団の／共同の 知恵 on the dos-and-don'ts of east Asian 開発.

One member, Joe Studwell, has written authoritatively on the 支配する: How Asia 作品: Success and 失敗 in the World's Most Dynamic 地域. The 調書をとる／予約する 詳細（に述べる）s the must-有産国 of 改革（する）d and 生産力のある 農業, 競争の激しい 輸出（する） 製造業の and tight 支配（する）／統制するs on international 資本／首都. Because it has all three, Joe calls Vietnam 'the most exciting country [in south-east Asia] from an 経済的な 視野'.

Why Vietnam is 井戸／弁護士席 positioned

Other favourable factors 含む 2,000 miles of coastline on the 海上の 貿易（する） 主要道路 between east Asia and the west, good relations with 中国 and the US (a rare 二塁打), and a young, 井戸／弁護士席-educated 全労働人口.

In Vietnam's 事例／患者, 存在 a one-party 明言する／公表する ? albeit いっそう少なく 最高の，を越す-負かす／撃墜する than 中国 ? means a 政府 that gets things done. As in Taiwan and South Korea, both 事実上の 軍の 独裁政治s in their 早い 開発 段階s, Vietnam's leaders are 焦点（を合わせる）d on doing whatever is necessary for 輸出（する） success.

That 含むs 任命する／導入するing the 組織／基盤／下部構造: the ports, the roads and the 供給（する） chains that tend to predetermine 早い 進歩. Vietnam has cannily created a proper 製造業の 供給（する） chain, with all the 構成要素s and logistical structures feeding into making its smartphone or sports-shoe-making factories 高度に 生産力のある and efficient.

Its タイミング is excellent. 中国's Covid-の近くにd ports 納得させるd many 沖合いの／海外の 製造業者s that relying on one country is risky.?

Also, as that 巨大（な） 隣人 moves up the value chain in the next couple of １０年間s, a couple of 一兆 dollars' 価値（がある） of low-end 製造業の is likely to leave. We 推定する／予想する a large 部分 to cross the 国境 to Vietnam.

There aren't yet many Vietnamese 輸出業者s of 規模 for us to 投資する in. One exception is a 生産者 of frozen catfish, more appetisingly rebranded as bassa

This partly explains why the big 輸出業者s are foreign brands setting up their 製造業の, helped by Vietnamese 技術s in languages, 顕著に Japanese and Korean.?

Samsung is by far Vietnam's biggest 輸出業者, having 投資するd around $12bn in the country in the past six years.

There aren't yet many Vietnamese 輸出業者s of 規模 for us to 投資する in. One exception is Vinh Hoan, the world's largest 生産者 of frozen pangasius, also known as catfish, more appetisingly rebranded as bassa. This white fish is an ますます popular source of protein, and Vinh Hoan has big 全世界の （弁護士の）依頼人s, 含むing Tesco, Aldi and Walmart.

Its impressive 経営者／支配人s explained their 計画（する） to move up the value chain by selling 抽出するs such as collagen, a protein taken as a health 補足（する）. They also discussed 偉業／利用するing the 会社／堅い's 凍結する-乾燥した，日照りのing 専門的知識 to 供給（する） other 成分s, such as dragon fruit for smoothies for 全世界の coffee chains.

さもなければ, we look for 国内の growth 在庫／株s ブイ，浮標d up by a growing wave of 繁栄 and a rising middle class. One example is 動きやすい World, which accounts for about 50 per cent of 地元の 動きやすい phone sales and runs a growing grocery chain.?

We also look for the best of Vietnam's outsourcing companies, such as FPT, Vietnam's IT and telecoms leader and a 全世界の powerhouse for 数字表示式の services. Its biggest market is Japan, serving Sony, Hitachi and Panasonic.

Bac Ninh 産業の Zone is a 巨大（な） 商売／仕事 park between the 資本／首都 and the northern port of Haiphong

From farms to factories

From the capita l Hanoi, where we've flown for the final 段階 of our trip, we travel by minibus to Bac Ninh 産業の Zone. Vietnamese hosts like to show off this 巨大（な） 商売／仕事 park between the 資本／首都 and the northern port of Haiphong.

Its 背景 is not the tourist-brochure Vietnam of sugarloaf mountains and tiered green 米，稲 fields but flat utilitarian 農地. A dull landscape, maybe, but one whose productiveness seeded the country's 現在の success.

Thanks to 共産主義者 land 配当 and その後の プロの／賛成の-market 改革（する）s, Vietnam's farming became profitable and more 競争の激しい. Its 生産性 far outstripped that of its south-east Asian 隣人s, 供給するing the 資本／首都 and 解放（する）ing the 労働 that helped kickstart the 栄えるing 製造業の 部門.

Now this 古代の 小作農民-farmed plain is 存在 encroached by neat roads, roundabouts and 井戸／弁護士席-tended topiary, peppered with 広大な hangar-like factories whose signage 布告するs a who's-who of 多国籍の 製造業の: Canon, Microsoft, Samsung, Foxconn.?

Will there be more native Vietnamese 指名するs の中で them next time I come? I got a feeling from my 会合s that there will be. Beyond these 列／漕ぐ／騒動s of cavernous sheds and surrounding car parks, the fields stretch to the horizon, 申し込む／申し出ing endless space for growth.

To discover more about 太平洋の Horizon's 見解（をとる） of Vietnam and its 隣人s, listen to the 信用's 副 経営者／支配人 Ben Durrant in our podcast series at bailliegifford.com/podcasts

Important （警察などへの）密告，告訴（状）

投資s with （危険などに）さらす to overseas 安全s c an be 影響する／感情d by changing 株式市場 条件s and 通貨 交流 率s. 太平洋の Horizon 投資 信用 投資するs in 現れるing markets where difficulties in 取引，協定ing, 解決／入植地 and 保護／拘留 could arise, resulting in a 消極的な 衝撃 on the value of your 投資.

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